Yesterday the EIA reported that working gas in underground storage increased by 20 Bcf or 0.5% to a record 3.833 Tcf for the week ended November 13th. It is sufficient to say that this is a huge injection, given extant storage and transportation constraints. As a result, underground storage rose to an eighth consecutive record.
Key takeaways from yesterday’s EIA report:
- The average pre-report consensus was an injection of 19 Bcf; the five-year average movement is a 1 Bcf delivery with a seasonal error of in between a 7 Bcf delivery and a 5 Bcf injection. Consequently, underground storage edged to within 1½% of EIA estimated capacity.
- The countercyclical injection is glaring when juxtaposed with shut-in production related to Ida. According to the Minerals Management Service (MMS), the amount of gas production offline in the GoM peaked on Tuesday, November 10th at 29% or 1.957 Bcf/d. For the four days (November 09th to 12th) over the EIA reference week for which the MMS provided updates, a total of 4.6 Bcf of production was shut-in.
- The market is now in a transition from whence builds segue into deliveries. By all accounts, November is as bearish as October was bullish, hence gas is still getting into the ground. For instance, heating degree days (HDDs) in Chicago were 26% below normal through the EIA reference week; in New York City HDDs were 36% below.
Through the first five days of this EIA week, as of Wednesday, HDDs were running 32% below normal in Chicago and 30% below in New York. What’s more, as of November 18th Chicago temperatures averaged 47.7°F month-to-date, a whopping 14% above normal.