Realty Check
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- Under Pressure, FHA Skews to Wealthier Home Buyers
- Huge Spike in Home Prices Is Not Real
- Investor Caution: Beware of Heat in Distressed Housing
- Foreclosures Move East as Hardest-Hit Markets Clear
- Foreclosures Fall...And That's a Bad Thing?
- After a Dip, Homebuilder Sentiment Surges Again
- Obama’s ‘Responsible’ Reno Homeowners: Are They?
- Mortgage Market Still Hampers Housing Recovery
- Bank of America Offers Principal Reductions to 200,000 Homeowners
- Short Sales: Necessary Compromise or Scamming the System?
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- China Rebalances Economy by Shifting Focus Inland
- Japan Retail Sales Rise as Consumer Sentiment Improves
- Greece Pours $22.6 Billion Into Four Biggest Banks
- Greece to Leave Euro Zone on June 18: Wealth Manager
- Spain's Borrowing Costs Near Danger Level: Bailout Next?
- Are Investors Running Out of Safe Havens to Put Money?
- European Firms Plan for Greek Unrest and Euro Exit
- India's Tumbling Rupee Triggers Convertible Bond Turmoil
- Asian Stocks Decline on Spanish Debt Woes
- Euro Wobbles Near 2-Year Low After Spanish Yields Rise
- A New Look at the ‘New Poor’
- Six Pack: Beer Buzz of the Week
- Greek Exit Could Trigger 50% Fall in Euro Stocks: Analyst
- Under Pressure, FHA Skews to Wealthier Home Buyers
- Big Stock Upside for Hudson City Deal: Analyst
- 5 High-Yield Stocks Ready to Boost Dividends
- Yoshikami: Four Things You Need to Know About Gold Now
- Steinbock: The Euro Zone Endgame Begins
- Option Bulls Take Another Shot on Idenix
- Spain's Debt Costs Near Danger Level: Is Bailout Next?
- China Rebalances Economy by Shifting Focus Inland
- US Markets Will Be Watching Europe—And Jobs Report
- India's Tumbling Rupee Roils Convertible Bond Market
- European Companies Plan for Greek Unrest and Euro Exit
- Japan's Marubeni Nears $5 Billion-Plus Gavilon Deal
- Public Pensions Faulted for Bets on Rosy Returns
- Greece to Leave Euro Zone on June 18: Wealth Manager
- Italy 2-Year Borrowing Costs at Peak Since December
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Predictions 2010: Real Estate
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CNBC Real Estate Reporter
1. The residential housing market will dip again in mid-2010 before settling into a recovery in the back half of the year.
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Photo: Jeff Turner |
2. Foreclosure inventory will be a lot higher than some predict.
Shadow inventory should be seen not just as homes the banks are holding on to or that are still in the foreclosure process, but homes where borrowers have stopped making payments and have not heard from the banks.
3. No more historic lows on the 30-year fixed.
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4. Commercial real estate will continue to suffer the ills of low vacancy rates, low rents and high default rates.
The biggest concern is credit, as billions of dollars in commercial debt come up for refinance with little to no takers.
Overall, consider it a B+. Here's how I fared on the individual nine:
1. I said foreclosures would get worse minus some kind of big government bailout. Well they did get worse—even with the big government bailout.
2. Existing home prices followed foreclosures, as I said they would.
3. Existing home sales did bounce back, thanks to some government intervention with the first time home buyer tax credit, but they only bounced on the low end of the market. That's because only the cheapest distressed homes can sell with unemployment as bad as it is.
4. New home sales did improve thanks to builders lowering prices and again thanks to the tax credit. The "incentive" I said was necessary came from Uncle Sam.
5. Housing Starts did drop. Good thing.
6. Pulte [PHM
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] ate Centex. Told ya' so.
7. Commercial Real Estate was easy...it just followed jobs.
8. CMBS is still all about frozen credit, as I said it would be.
9. Did you buy a house? I didn't. I wanted to. Couldn't afford it.
Data is a real-time snapshot *Data is delayed at least 15 minutes
