Intrigue and Plot Twists in Global Climate Talks

Such was the stalled geopolitical tableau into which the climate-science e-mail “scandal” unfolded until — twist! — Mr. Obama titillated Copenhagen watchers with a pledge Wednesday to appear at the conference armed with a plan to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the United States by something “in the range of” 17 percent below 2005 levels, by 2020. And the United States would aim for a reduction of 83 percent by 2050, White House officials said last week.

As my colleague John Broder noted in reporting the announcement, it was “the first time in more than a decade that an American administration has offered even a tentative promise to reduce production of climate-altering gases.”

Still, reaction to the American gambit was mixed, with many leaders in Europe expressing disappointment that Mr. Obama planned only a brief appearance near the outset of the two-week negotiations in Copenhagen and that the planned emissions reductions were, by most measures, rather modest.

Environmental groups like Greenpeace, for example, were withering in their critique of the announcement. “The proposed emissions reductions target — 17 percent below 2005 levels by 2020 — is less than one-seventh of what the European Union leaders have said they are prepared to commit,” Greenpeace said in a statement.

“The proposed reduction refers to 2005 emissions and not the standard 1990 baseline used by scientists and policy makers around the world,” it said. “Arranging the numbers this way may be more politically palatable, but it misleads the public on information key to its welfare.”

Others, though, praised the move as having the potential to reignite the potential for meaningful climate action. “We are thrilled at President Obama’s announcement today,” John Doerr, a partner at the venture capital firm Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers, said in a statement. Mr. Obama’s presence, Mr. Doerr suggested, would “help drive these issues forward.”

And as if on cue — twist! — Chinese leaders said Thursday that they would aim to slow the growth of their country’s greenhouse gas emissions by 2020.

For those hoping for ambitious emissions reduction targets from China, the pledge was disappointing — particularly in that it appeared to be even less aspiring than the cautious goals presented by the United States the day before.

But few failed to recognize that the Copenhagen plot line — after years, really, of stalemate, lowered expectations and continued scientific bickering — appeared to be moving forward.

“As we head towards Copenhagen, the world’s two largest emitters have stepped up to the plate at the highest political level,” Jonathan Lash, president of the World Resources Institute, said in a statement. “This shows that international engagement on climate change can produce real results.”

The Copenhagen talks begin Dec. 7. Stay tuned.

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