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CNBC EXPLAINS

Double-Dip Recession Still Possible: Chief Investor

Published: Monday, 7 Dec 2009 | 9:53 AM ET

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By: JeeYeon Park
CNBC.com Writer

Friday's jobs report provided a boost to believers in an economic recovery, but there are still skeptics. Brett Gallagher, deputy chief investment officer of Artio Global Investors, shared his market outlook.

“A lot of stimulus has been put into place already and it will continue to be a bit of a tailwind for Q4 and Q1. But after that, the momentum that government is hoping to build and hand over to consumers—I don’t see it,” Gallagher told CNBC.

“There’s been absolutely no addressing the critical problem and that is the amount of consumer debt that has built up, not only in the U.S. but also in places like U.K., Netherlands, Spain, and Ireland," he said. "Consumers are not going to want to spend when the government pulls back.”

As a result, Gallagher said a double-dip recession is still possible. He sees emerging markets offering the best opportunities for investors.

“We see some sort of slowdown,” he said. “Governments may continue to prolong it—they may get additional stimulus—but at the end of the day, the consumer is 55 to 65 percent of each of these economies. And if the consumer is not healthy, I don’t see how the economy can be expected to function properly.”