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Analyze This: AOL Begins Trading

Thursday, 10 Dec 2009 | 5:34 PM ET

As you may know, on Thursday Time Warner completed its spin-off of AOL and closed the book on one of the most disastrous business combinations in history.

Back in 2001, when the two companies merged they were betting that Time Warner's TV and magazine content would complement AOL's Internet business.

Analyze This
AOL down on its first day of trading. Whether investors should get in early, with David Joyce, Miller Tabak analyst.

Instead, by the end of the decade, all AOL did for Time Warner was drag down profits at the media conglomerate.

But over the course of a decade AOL has changed, considerably.

No longer a firm that sells dial-up Internet access, today’s AOL gets most of its money from running advertisements on its portfolio of Web sites which include AOL.com, Mapquest and tech blog Engadget.

AOL is also a fraction of what it once was. Now a $2 billion company – a far cry from the $147 billion company it once was – it also has no debt. The company is profitable, though its operating income dropped 50 percent to $134 million in the third quarter from the same period a year earlier. Third-quarter revenue dropped 23 percent from last year to $777 million.

As an independent company, AOL has said it plans to refocus on technology, online media content and branded display advertising.

How should you trade this stock?

Miller Tabak analyst David Joyce tells the desk he thinks that AOL'S $23 price is a bargain and the stock could see a big lift once its new strategy gets under way. AOL should be worth $30 - $34 a share, he says.


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Trader disclosure: On December 10th, 2009, the following stocks and commodities mentioned or intended to be mentioned on CNBC’s Fast Money were owned by the Fast Money traders; Adami Owns (AGU), (C), (GS), (INTC), (MSFT), (NUE), (BTU); Finerman's Firm Owns (MSFT), (WMT), (AAPL), (FLS); Finerman's Firm Is Short (IJR), (IWM), (SPY), (MDY); Finerman's Firm Is Short (UNG); Finerman's Firm Owns (BAC) Preferred, (BAC), (BAC) Call Spread; Finerman Owns (BAC) Preferred, (BAC); Finerman's Firm And Finerman Own (WFC) Preferred; Seymour Owns (AAPL), (EMM), (INTC), (PFE), (TKC), (BAC), (FXI), (GE), (POT); Seymour's Firm Owns (MTL); Najarian Owns (BRCD), ; Najarian Owns (PFE); Najarian Owns (TEVA); Najarian Owns (AAPL) Calls; Najarian Owns (DELL) Calls; Najarian Owns (FCX) CAlls Spread; Najarian Owns (INTC), Is Short (INTC) Calls; Najarian Owns (TXN), Is Short (TXN) Calls; Najarian Owns (RIMM) Call Spread

For Steve Cortes
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