Skip navigation

Government Debt Issuers Most Likely to Default

Topics:Debt | Greece
By: Paul Toscano, Producer, CNBC.com | 17 Dec 2009 | 01:35 PM ET
Text Size

Gov't Debt Issuers In Trouble
Photo: CNBC.com | Source: CMA DataVision
With the recent news surrounding the troubled economies of Greece and Dubai, many have questioned the stability and safety of government debt issued by these countries. But whose debt is really in the worst shape?To answer this question CMA DataVision, a subsidiary of the CME Group, has put together its "Sovereign Risk Monitor", which ranks the world’s most volatile sovereign debt issuers according to percent changes in five-year credit default swaps (CDS). The countries are ranked by their cumulative probability of default (CPD), which gives the market's assessment of an issuer's likelihood of default over the life of a CDS contract. So, if a country has a 20% CPD rating for its five-year CDS contracts, the market believes this debt has a two-in-ten chance of defaulting in the next five years.  Also included for each country is their most recent credit rating from one of the major agencies that covers them.So, what current government debt carries the highest risk of default? Click ahead to find out!By Paul ToscanoUpdated 1 March 2010

10. Dominican Republic
Photo: AP
CPD: 23.37%Mid Spread: 375.00S&P Credit Rating:Foreign Long Term: BForeign Short Term: BCredit Watch/Outlook: StablePictured: Santo Domingo skyline, Dominican Republic

9. Greece
Photo: Tom Pfeiffer | VolcanoDiscovery | Getty Images
CPD: 24.92%Mid Spread: 341.54S&P Credit Ratings:Foreign Long Term: BBB+Foreign Short Term: A-2Credit Watch/Outlook: NegativePictured: The view over the caldera of Santorini, Greece.

8. Iceland
Photo: Ilan Arad | Getty Images
CPD: 27.03%Mid Spread: 476.34S&P Credit Ratings:Foreign Long Term: BBB-Foreign Short Term: A-3Credit Watch/Outlook: NegativePictured: A general aerial view taken in August 2005 of Reykjavík, the capital of Iceland.

7. Iraq
Photo: Getty Images
CPD: 28.25%Mid Spread: 475.97S&P Credit Ratings:Foreign Long Term: N/AForeign Short Term: N/APictured: An aerial view of Baghdad, Iraq.

6. Republic of Latvia
Photo: Ilmars Znotins | AFP | Getty Images
CPD: 29.13%Mid Spread: 513.31S&P Credit Ratings:Foreign Long Term: BBForeign Short Term: BCredit Watch/Outlook: StablePictured: A general view of Riga taken from the top of St. Peters church on May 11, 2006.

5. Dubai, UAE
Photo: Getty Images
CPD: 32.46%Mid Spread: 572.92S&P Credit Rating:Foreign Long Term: N/AForeign Short Term: N/APictured: The Burj Dubai the tallest building in the world dominates the city skyline seen from a hot air balloon above the course during the third round of the Dubai Ladies Masters on the Majilis Course at the Emirates Golf Club on December 13, 2008 in Dubai, United Arab Emirates  *Ratings shown are for the Dubai Holding Commercial Operations Group LLC, which is one of six Dubai government-related entities that experienced a ratings downgrade.

4. Pakistan
Photo: Getty Images
CPD: 42.17%Mid Spread: 803.20S&P Credit Ratings:Foreign Long Term: B-Foreign Short Term: CCredit Watch/Outlook: StablePictured: Pakistani college students and athletes line the roadside waving Pakistan and Melbourne 2006 flags to welcome the Melbourne 2006 Queen's Baton through the streets of Islamabad on September 13, 2005 in Pakistan.

3. Ukraine
Photo: Andrea Pistolesi | The Image Bank | Getty Images
CPD: 44.12%Mid Spread: 884.91S&P Credit Ratings:Foreign Long Term: CCC+Foreign Short Term: CCredit Watch/Outlook: StablePictured: Kiev, Ukraine, Independence Square

2. Venezuela
Photo: Hisham Ibrahim | The Image Bank | Getty Images
CPD: 49.76%Mid Spread: 1013.78S&P Credit Ratings:Foreign Long Term: BB-Foreign Short Term: BCredit Watch/Outlook: StableCredit Watch/Outlook: NegativePictured: Venezuela, Caracas, skyline

1. Argentina
Photo: Walter Bibikow | The Image Bank | Getty Images
CPD: 50.14%Mid Spread: 1081.14S&P Credit Ratings:Foreign Long Term: B-Foreign Short Term: CCredit Watch/Outlook: StablePictured: Argentina, Buenos Aires, El Obelisko, Plaza de la Republica, and Avenida.

© 2012 CNBC.com
Tools:
Add This share icon

MORE SLIDESHOWS

Current DateTime: 01:50:23 10 Feb 2012
LinksList Documentid: 29778428

Current DateTime: 11:56:47 09 Feb 2012
LinksList Documentid: 29779196

Current DateTime: 10:08:28 09 Feb 2012
LinksList Documentid: 29779197

Current DateTime: 10:56:22 09 Feb 2012
LinksList Documentid: 29779199
CNBCCNBC
About CNBC  |  Site Map  |  Video Reprints   |  Advertise  |  Help  |  Contact
Privacy Policy  |     |  Terms of Service  |  Independent Programming Report
  Data is a real-time snapshot  *Data is delayed at least 15 minutes
Global Business and Financial News, Stock Quotes, and Market Data and Analysis

© 2012 CNBC LLC.  All Rights Reserved.
A Division of NBCUniversal
Thomson ReutersThomson Reuters