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Will Santa Bring a Lift to the Markets?
Published:
Wednesday, 23 Dec 2009 | 9:50 AM ET
Text Size 
By: Ariel Nelson
Director of Market Data & Content Services
Director of Market Data & Content Services
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On average, the Dow [.DJIA
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()
], S&P 500 [.DJIA
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()
], and Nasdaq [.DJIA
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()
], have gained 1.9%, 1.7%, and 2.3% respectively during the rally and have been up ~75% or more of the time.
- Dow (since first Santa Claus Rally: Dec 1896 - Jan 1897)
- Avg gain of 1.9%, up 77% of the time
- Biggest rally: 11.6% from Dec 1917 to Jan 1918
- Avg gain when up, 2.8%
- Avg drop when down, -1.3%
- S&P (since first Santa Claus Rally: Dec 1928 - Jan 1929)
- Avg gain of 1.7%, up 74% of the time
- Biggest rally: 7.8% from Dec 1941 to Jan 1942
- Avg gain when up, 2.8%
- Avg drop when down, -1.4%
- Nasdaq (since first Santa Claus Rally: Dec 1971 - Jan 1972)
- Avg gain of 2.3%, up 84% of the time
- Biggest rally: 11.8% from Dec 2000 to Jan 2001
- Avg gain when up, 3.1%
- Avg drop when down, -2.1%
According to the Stock Trader's Almanac, "if Santa Claus should fail to call, bears may come to Broad and Wall." While the odds of a rally are nearly 3:1, a drop often precedes a bear market, the Almanac explains.
Let's hope everyone's been nice this year. Happy Holidays!
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