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Charts: India, Not China Is Safest Emerging Market
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The long-term investment trend is definitely pointing toward Asia, but China may not be the best opportunity in the region while India could be a safer bet, Robin Griffiths, technical strategist at Cazenove Capital, told CNBC Monday.
"Everybody talks about China, China, China, which is good and I believe in the China story… but some other markets are slightly less vulnerable than China," Griffiths said.
China is heavily dependent on exports for its economic growth and so is linked to the strength of western economies, Griffiths points out. Any economic slump in the West will dent growth in China, he said.
"That is considerably less the case in India, (which) doesn't really import or export anything very much. It's just got to slowly grow its own economy by building up its infrastructure, which I think will keep driving the secular or very long-term trend higher," Griffiths said.
"This is one of the safer Asian markets to be a long-term investor in," he said taking a technical look at the Sensex Index.
Even though Griffiths is positive on the prospects for the Asian economies, he warns investors not to expect too much, too soon.
"In terms of how long these markets will take to really be super powers, it's a very long time. The fastest growing is China - even that on a best case scenario will take 16 more years to have an economy the same size as the USA," he said.
India will take an additional 10 years to match the level of America's economy, he said.
"So it's a pension plan type view we're talking about here, not a trade," Griffiths said.
- Watch the video above to see Robin Griffiths' view on the FTSE-100 and the dollar index.
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Data is a real-time snapshot *Data is delayed at least 15 minutes
