Analysts had worried that the Fed's plan to stop buying billions of dollars of mortgage-backed securities—which it has done over the past year—would cause rates to shoot higher because the market would have to search harder for buyers.
But with the relatively calm market reaction to last week's hike of the discount lending rate and the pullback of a few other Fed liquidity measures, the consensus has changed to seeing little or no move in mortgage rates.
"I don't think we'll see a major reaction and probably not a big spike higher in rates even though the market is losing one of its major actors," said Kim Rupert, managing director of global fixed income analysis for Action Economics in San Francisco. "So we're going to have to find some other sources of demand. The market's pretty ingenious and it can fill that hole without serious consequences."
The Fed let the market know months in advance that it would stop buying mortgages, a measure it initially employed to goose demand and keep mortgage rates low.
Conversely, the Fed surprised the market last week when it announced Thursday that it was hiking the discount rate—a largely symbolic rate that the central bank charges banks for emergency loans—by half a percentage point. The market initially wobbled but quickly adjusted.
In fact, yields on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note have even come in some since the announcement, falling from an overnight high of 3.79 percent Thursday to about 3.69 in Wednesday trading.
"By and large the end of the purchasing program is priced in," said Zach Pandl, economist at Nomura Securities in New York. "The Fed has signaled in its public comments that it is willing to bring the mortgage purchase program back if the economy disappoints. That limits the extent to which mortgage rates are going to rise."
To be sure, that analysis looks only at the immediate impact of the MBS program's end. The future could tell a different story.
The Fed has indicated only when it will stop buying mortgage-backed securities but has yet to disclose when it will begin to sell the billions already on its books. An influx of supply at a faster rate than the market can handle could ultimately drive up mortgage rates.
"Where the Fed may think they can get out of this for 40 or 50 basis points (0.40 to 0.50 of a percentage point), at the end of the day it may be 150 basis points," Yra Harris, of Praxis Trading, said in a CNBC interview. "That's something that nobody knows and they're depending on their models to tell them. But I think we've all learned some of their models may be suspect."