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Is Charlie Munger Too Pessimistic? Ask Warren Transcript - Part 8
Executive Producer
Is longtime Warren Buffett partner Charlie Munger too pessimistic?This is part eight of the transcript and video of Warren Buffett's 'Ask Warren' appearance on CNBC's Squawk Box on Monday, March 1, 2010.
QUICK: All right, welcome back everybody. We are live in Omaha, Nebraska, with Warren Buffett. We've been going through the questions that you've been sending in. We've got more to get to. And, Warren, I want to start out with a question from Jason Gould in Waco, Texas, who says, "Charlie Munger recently released an op-ed parable titled, `Basically, It's Over.' Is Charlie too pessimistic?"
BUFFETT: He's talking about the fact that when a country gets too occupied with being--with the casino aspects of the--of the economy and forgets about the rest that it's headed in to somewhat of decadence. That is what (economist John Maynard) Keynes wrote about back in 1935 in Chapter 12, and Charlie's more pessimistic than I am. This country is not an accident. I mean, 200 years ago look what we had and look what we have now. It isn't like we've forgotten any secrets or anything of the sort. So the country has a bright future.
QUICK: Another viewer had written in, and I don't have the e-mail here right now, but another viewer had written in and said, `What do you do when you and Charlie disagree fundamentally on a point? How do you make that decision?'
BUFFETT: Well, what Charlie always says to me is he's--when we disagree--he says, "Well, Warren," he says, "you'll see it my way because you're smart and I'm right." That's his technique. But pretty much in--if we really disagree on something, we're not going to do it. But if I like something, he just grumbles and mumbles and, you know, says, "That's kind of a dumb idea," where I go ahead and do it.
QUICK: What's the last thing that you disagreed on fundamentally so much that you didn't do it?
BUFFETT: Hm, there have been some like that. I can't pick them right out of the air at the moment. Certainly nothing in the last six months or I would recall it.
QUICK: OK. Let's get to question--a question from Streamwood, Illinois. "If you were Ben Bernanke or Tim Geithner, what specific monetary or fiscal policy would you recommend that would have an immediate impact on job creations?"
BUFFETT: That's very tough. I mean, if you really, you know, if you want to do something, you'd go out and--you would drop a $1 million in every household.
QUICK: Mm-hmm.
BUFFETT: But, of course, money would be worth nothing. The real trick is to--is to get the--have them drop a million in every household and have me be the only--have me think that nobody else got it except me. Now I think the money's really valuable. It--you--you're trying to stimulate and you stimulate by putting money in people's pockets who are going to spend it. But that has consequences down the line. I mean, we--you have to deal with the illness and then, unfortunately, you have to deal with the medicine, and the medicine is very strong this time. So there's going to be a lot of medicine to deal with.
QUICK: Has the government done enough already and now it's time to just and wait?
BUFFETT: It's hard to tell. It--I think it's--I think there's a political dissatisfaction element that enters into what government does. I mean, obviously, if people expect results next month they're not going to get them next month. But if they get--you know, want some kind of action if they get upset enough and they'll--you know, with an election coming up in November, you're going to see more and more people saying, you know, `Why isn't this working faster?'
QUICK: Although, you're probably talking about two disgruntled groups. One, who are people who are very worried who don't have jobs, they're worried about losing their jobs who'd like to see more done. The other like the Tea Party coalitions that are being formed that would like to see the government step out of it and not spend any more taxpayer dollars.
BUFFETT: And that's why out government's always been messy and it's going to continue to be messy, but it'll work in the end.
QUICK: All right, let's get to another e-mail question. This one comes from Dana in Fort Smith, Arkansas. She says, "Mr. Buffett, I've always used the trucking industry as a gauge on how the U.S. economy is doing. I've become more concerned lately as I see our country's major trucking companies struggling. Are my concerns legitimate?"
BUFFETT: Yeah, well, trucking is struggling and the railroads. I mean, the railroad carloadings last week or the week before, whenever it was, were down--they were up from last year, but they were down 16 and a fraction percent, as I remember from two years ago. And trucking is having the same experience. There are just less goods moving than there were a few years ago because the economy has slowed down very significantly. Trucking will come back, railroads will come back, but this economy has slowed down a lot from a few years ago. And...
QUICK: You haven't seen any pickup at all?
BUFFETT: Very, very, very little, and that's true of trucking. There's just the slightest uptick and--but who knows what it'll be six months from now. It will come back, but it's not--it's not roaring back on--there's no way that you can look at the figures and say that it's coming back fast.
QUICK: Do you worry about a double-dip in the--in the recession and the downturn? Or do you think that this is just a very slow recovery?
BUFFETT: It's a slow recovery. The only thing--I mean, if you had some big exogenous event, I mean if you had something go wrong in the European Union or--I mean, there--if something--a huge terrorist attack, I mean, you can--you can think of things that would cause another jolt to the economy like that jolt we had in September of 2008. But absent something really big from an exogenous nature to the United States, no, I think we will continue moving upward but not at a very fast rate.
QUICK: All right. Here's some questions that came in, too. Clayton Jennings in Greenville, South Carolina, "After so many years of limited media exposure, why have you been so accessible to the media in the last few years?" That's a question I get a lot, too.
BUFFETT: Yeah, well, it--for years I just wrote the annual report and that was pretty much it. And, you know, people kept inviting me on, and I didn't go on, and it's fine to go on. I mean, I'm perfecting happy to express my opinions on certain subjects that don't relate directly to Berkshire, which I probably wouldn't want to use the Berkshire vehicle to talk about. And, you know, it--nobody pays me very well for doing this, I must say, if you're listening.
QUICK: If you're listening, you're taking offers?
BUFFETT: Yeah. Yeah. But, you know, it's things I talk about privately so why not talk about them publicly.
QUICK: OK. David Gordon from Farmingdale, New York, says, "Do you watch the Olympics?"








