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A Year Later: Investors Hope Not to Get Gored By Bull
CNBC.com Senior Writer
Investors on the whole appear to be taking a more cautious approach. Stocks have posted a comparatively modest 2 percent gain in 2010 as sentiment has shifted from a strongly bullish stance.
The most recent survey from the American Association of Independent Advisers saw the most popular choice being "neutral," at 37.9 percent, which is well above the historical average of 31 percent. Bulls were at 35.9 percent while bears were at 26.2 percent—both below historical averages.
"For most of last year I thought it was a bull market within a bear market," Sanders says. "Within about the past few weeks we've tipped over into the point where we no longer called this a bear market. I do think we're in a phase of improvement, but the patient is still in the hospital."
The rally itself fed off companies that had taken the worst of the beating during the previous bear market, and many investment pros think this year's growth will come from large-cap strong-balance-sheet quality companies.
But Sanders thinks there still are some values to be found in so-called "junk" stocks.
"We categorize our investments in two types for trading purposes: the fundamental buys and the quick hits," she says. "This market still does offer opportunities to buy stocks that have a lot of momentum or let's say institutional interest that could jump 15 percent in three weeks and then we're out of there."
Stocks overall will continue to be a better investment than competing asset classes, says Carlos H. Lowenberg Jr., CEO of Lowenberg Wealth Management Group in Austin, Texas.
"What I see now is sort of a rotation where you're seeing quality companies start to do well and look like that's where the rest of the bull market could come from," he says. "The long-term average (for stock gains) is 8 or 9 percent over the last 40 years and I think we'll be over that, and that's strong especially when you look at competing assets like bonds and interest-bearing accounts."
ING's Landesman also expects most investors to start looking at fundamentals again. One area that has him optimistic is a resurgence in mergers and acquisitions after a moribund 2009 despite the stocks rally.
"That tells you the really smart guys, the people running companies, are seeing value out there," he says. "Those who were able to keep their powder dry and have strong enough balance sheets...are out there aggressively looking to add through acquisitions."
As for individual investors, a harsh two-year education continues to play out.
"They definitely went from buy first and ask later to ask first and buy later," Federated's Grefenstette says. "When you're coming off a bottom everything rallies, even the junk. As economic growth matures you're going to see a trend toward higher-quality growth. People will be more critical."





