The Fed is the big headline maker this week when it comes to the economy and some traders expect a negative response from stocks, even if the Fed makes little news.

"I think they need to see some job growth before they go a lot further in their exit strategy," said Doll, adding the Fed will need to see several months of growth before moving on rates. "My view is they will raise rates before the end of the year, post the election before the end of the year."

Brown said the credit market activity is just what the Fed was looking for. "When (Fed Chairman Ben) Bernanke looks at this, it's exactly what they're hoping for—this return to normalcy. Even though banks are not lending money, we now have financial markets returning to normalcy and providing the financing people need. A large part of that financing allows them to refinance of higher cost debt and be in better shape than they would have been," he said.

In the past week, the surprising gain 0.3 percent in February retail sales gave encouragement to economists who see signs the consumer is showing early signs of recovery. "It's consistent with real consumer spending growing 3.25 percent over all in the first quarter. That's about a half a percent stronger than we thought," said Citigroup economist Steve Wieting.

"So many people viewed a consumer rebound as impossible, and month after month, it's in their face," he said. Investors will get another look at the consumer's health Monday when credit card issuers report master trust data.

The Producer Price Index is reported Wednesday and the Consumer Price Index is out on Thursday. Industrial production is reported Monday. Housing starts and import prices are released Tuesday, and the Philadelphia Fed survey and leading indicators are issued Thursday.

Doll said stocks will stay on their current course if the data doesn't disappoint, as it did in February. "We just can't have negative surprises. The numbers can be ho hum but we just can't have negative surprises," he said.

Weekly jobless claims are also reported Thursday. "Over the course of March, we've got to see claims data decline if it's going to be consistent with the (February) employment report," said Wieting. He said the unemployment claims have been negatively impacted by winter storms on the east coast, and he expects them to improve.

What Else To Watch

Investors will also be watching Washington for movement in the health care reform legislation this week.

For the oil markets, OPEC meets in Vienna Tuesday and Wednesday.

There are just a few earnings. FedEx

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[FDX  Loading...      ()   ] reports Thursday, and Discover Financial

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[DFS  Loading...      ()   ] reports Tuesday.

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