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Where Have All The Investors Gone?

Monday, 15 Mar 2010 | 5:27 PM ET

The S&P 500 has barely budged since hitting a 17-month high last week as volume continues to be light.

Where have all the investors gone?

Strategy Session with the Fast Money traders

After last week’s relative under-performance I thought we’d get some clarity, muses Gary Kaminksy, but we didn’t. I don’t understand why we’re not getting any defining action. Now it seems to me the market moving catalyst will be commentary from the Fed on Tuesday.

Looking at the market action, we could have had a sharp pullback on Tuesday, adds Tim Seymour but we didn’t. Financials and commodities could have tipped over entirely, but they didn’t. Ultimately I think we go higher.

1150 in the S&P has been huge resistance, reminds Guy Adami. We’re at this critical level right now and it's on low volume with no real catalyst. It suggests momentum could take us higher.

As we first told you in the Halftime Report, one technical indicator suggests the market may have come too far too fast. We’re talking about the Relative Strength Index or RSI.

The RSI compares the magnitude of up moves to down moves over a period of time; essentially it’s a measure of momentum, Scott Nations explains. Traders use the RSI to determine if momentum – and not fundamentals - has carried the market beyond where it should be. Above 70 is considered oversold and on Friday the RSI closed at 69.

On another note, if you’re looking for a trade, I’d look at Tiffany ahead of earnings, adds Guy Adami.

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CHARGE-OFFS


On Monday investors pored over new data about the state of the consumer and their ability to make charge card payments. Charge-offs increased at Bank of America, Discover Financial Services , and American Express, but fell at Capital One Financial , according to regulatory filings on Monday.

Charge-offs are loans the companies do not expect to be repaid.

What’s the trade?

I’m concerned about Citi’s charge-offs, says Guy Adami, they were miserable. JPMorgan however seems okay.

If you want to trade the space, I'd check out the processors such as Mastercard and Visa and avoid all the noise.


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FINANCIALS LEAD DROP

Financials dipped intra-day as Senator Chris Dodd unveiled his much anticipated financial reform package. But by the close the sector rallied perhaps suggesting the Street isn’t sure if the bill will make it through Congress.

How should you trade?

I’d fade the concern, says Josh Rosner of Graham Fisher. I don’t think we actually get meaningful reform.

I think there's a possibility that non-US big banks will be at a competative advantage if all of this reform happens, says Gary Kaminksy. Barclay's might be worth a look. They could use this to their advantage.

I agree, says Tim Seymour. The same is true for BNP Paribas.

I can’t help but think when there’s a crescendo of bad news it’s a good time to buy, muses Karen Finermnan. I’d think about being a buyer on a pullback.

I like Raymond James, adds Guy Adami.

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MARKET BUZZKILL COMMODITIES

What was that thud in the market? That was the sound of commodities selling off. The worry? China could end the party sooner rather than later and raise rates.

What’s the trade?

In this space, I’m watching oil, says Guy Adami. I can’t help but wonder if the action last week suggests a short term top.

I’m bullish Exxon counters, says Tim Seymour. It seems cheap to me and its trading flat year over year.

I’m short aluminum and copper, adds Brian Kelly.

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CALL OF THE DAY: THE WOMAN WHO MOVED WALMART

Walmart shares popped on Monday after Citi analyst Deborah Weinswig upgraded the retailer to “Buy” from “Hold,” and increased her price target to $65 from $54.

“Walmart is lacing up the gloves in the fight to win the modern day price war,” writes Weinswig in a note. She’s particularly bullish on Walmarts’s ability to further steal share from grocery stores.

When Walmart starts exercising vendor support what they're saying to vendors is -- if you want the shelf space, you give us some margin back. That's good for consumers but it may not bode terribly well for Walmart's largest suppliers such as Kraft, says Gary Kaminksy.

What else must you know about this call? Find out from Weinswig in our exclusive interview. Watch the video now!

The Woman Who Moved Wal-Mart
Insight on her upgrade of Wal-Mart, with Deborah Weinswig, Citigroup analyst.



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Trader disclosure: On March 15, 2010, the following stocks and commodities mentioned or intended to be mentioned on CNBC’s Fast Money were owned by the Fast Money traders Adami Owns (AGU), (C), (GS), (INTC), (MSFT), (NUE), (BTU); Finerman's Firm Is Short (IYR), (IJR), (MDY), (SPY), (IWM); Finerman Owns (AAPL); Finerman's Firm Owns (BAC), (BAC) Leaps; Finerman Owns (BAC), (BAC) Preferred; Finerman's Firm And Finerman Own (GOOG); Finerman's Firm And Finerman Own (JPM); Finemran's Firm Owns (WFC) Preferred; Finerman's Firm Owns (BSX), (OSIP), (TGT), (WMT); Finerman's Firm Owns (KFT); Kelly Owns (AMZN) Calls; Kelly Owns (ELX) Calls; Seymour Owns (BX), (EEM), (FXI), (MSFT), (XOM), (AAPL), (BAC), (GE), (F); Jon Najarian Owns (FCX), Is Short (FCX) Calls; Jon Najarian Owns (MSFT), Is Short (MSFT) Calls; Jon Najarian Owns (TGT), Is Short (TGT) Calls; Jon Najarian Owns (WMT), Is Short (WMT) Calls; Jon Najarian Is Short (GOOG) Through Put Spreads; Jon Najarian Owns (GS), Is Short (GS) Calls; Jon Najarian Owns (C), Is Short (C) Calls; Karabell Owns (FCX), (NKE), (GOOG), (FXI), (C); Nations Owns (MSFT), (SPY)

GE Is The Parent Company Of CNBC

For Brian Kelly
Kanundrum Capital Owns (JPM)
Kanundrum Capital Owns (GE)
Kanundrum Capital Owns (BRCM)
Kanundrum Capital Owns (ELX)
Kanundrum Capital Owns (GLD)
Kanundrum Capital Is Short (RKH)
Kanundrum Capital Is Short (KRE)
Kanundrum Capital Is Short (SLX)
Kanundrum Capital Is Short (X)
Kanundrum Capital Is Short (FCX)
Kanundrum Capital Is Short (AA)
Kanundrum Capital Is Short (ACH)
Kanundrum Capital Is Short (EWH)
Kanundrum Capital Is Short (FXI)
Kanundrum Capital Is Short U.S. Treasuries
Kanundrum Capital Is Short Copper

For Mike Khouw
Cantor Fitzgerald & Co. Is A Market Maker In (FDX)

For Anthony Scaramucci
Skybridge Owns (PEP), (XOM), (PFE), (LSTZA), (JNJ)

For Jeff Degraaf
DeGraaf Owns (C)

For Deborah Weinswig
A Director Of Citi Is On Board And Audit Committee Of (TGT)
An Employee Of Citigroup Global Markets Or Affiliates Is A Trustee Of (TGT)
An Associate Owns (WMT), (LOW)
Citigroup Global Markets Or Affiliates Owns 1% Or More Of (JCP), (SKS)
Citigroup Global Markets Or Affiliates Has Managed Or Co-Managed Offering Of (DG), (KR), (SVU), (WMT)
Citigroup Global Markets Or Affiliates Has Received Investment Banking Compensation For Services Provided In Past 12 Months From (DG), (KR),
(SKS), (SVU), (TGT), (WMT)
Citigroup Global Markets Or Affiliates Expects To Receive/Seek Investment Banking Compensation From (WMT) In Next Three Months
Citigroup Global Markets Or Affiliate Received Non-Investment Banking Compensation From (HD), (JCP), (KSS), (KR), (M), (SWY), (SVU), (TGT), (WAG), (WMT), (COST) In Past 12 Months
(DG), (KR), (SKS), (SVU), (TGT), (WMT) Are Or In Past 12 Months Were Investment Banking Clients Of Citigroup Global Markets
(CVS), (DG), (HD), (JCP), (KSS), (KR), (M), (SWY), (SKS), (SVU), (TGT), (WAG), (WMT), (COST) Are Or In Past 12 Months Were Clients Of Citigroup Global Markets (Non-Investment Banking, Securities-Related Services)
(HD), (JCP), (KSS), (KR), (M), (SWY), (SVU), (TGT), (WAG), (WMT), (COST), Are Or In Past 12 Months Were Clients Of Citigroup Global Markets (Non-Investment Banking, Non-Securities Related Services)
Citigroup Global Markets Or Affiliate Received Compensation From (DG) In Past 12 Months
Citigroup Global Markets Is A Market Maker In (CVS), (M), (COST)
Citigroup Global Markets And/Or Affiliates Has A Significant Financial Interest In Relation To (CVS), (HD), (JCP), (KSS), (KR), (LOW), (M), (JWN), (SWY), (SKS), (SVU), (TGT), (WMT), (COST)
Citigroup Global Markets Or Affiliates Owns 5% Or More Of (SKS)

For Mark Mananey
Citi Employees Owns (GOOG), (YHOO)
Citigroup Global Markets Or Affiliates Owns 1% Or More Of (AKAM), (NFLX), (PCLN), (YHOO)
Citigroup Global Markets Or Affiliates Has Acted As Manager Or Co-Manager Of An Offering Of (PCLN)
Citigroup Global Markets Or Affiliates Has Received Investment Banking Compensation From (PCLN) In Past 12 Months
(AOL), (MWW), Orbitz, (AMZN), (EBAY), (EXPE), (GOOG), (IACI),Tree.com, (WBMD), (YHOO) Are Or In Past 12 Months Were Clients Of Citigroup Global Markets (Non-Investment Banking, Securities-Related Services)
(AOL), (MWW), Orbitz, (AMZN), (EBAY), (EXPE), (GOOG), (IACI), (WBMD), (YHOO) Are Or In Past 12 Months Were Clients Of Citigroup Global Markets (Non-Investment Banking Non-Securities Serviecs)
Citigroup Global Markets Is A Market Maker In (MWW), (AKAM), (AMZN), (NILE), (EBAY), (EXPE), (GOOG), (IACI), (NFLX), OpenTable, (PCLN), Tree.com, (VCLK), Vistaprint, (WBMD) (YHOO)
Citigroup Global Markets And/Or Affiliates Has A Significant Financial Interest In Relatoin To (EBAY), (GOOG), (IACI), (WBMD), (YHOO)
Citigroup Global Markets Or Affiliates Owns 5% Or More Of (YHOO)



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