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There Must Be A Pony In Here Somewhere


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CONTRIBUTORS


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  • Cindy Perman

      News Editor at CNBC.com and the author of The Pony Blog (ponyblog.cnbc.com). She has also written a book, “New York Curiosities,” and does stand-up comedy.

  • Jane Wells

      CNBC business news reporter, based in Los Angeles, covering the defense and technology industries. She writes the CNBC.com blog Funny Business.

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ABOUT THIS BLOG

The news can get a little heavy sometimes, with debt crises, vicious markets and crappy earnings reports. So, we dispatched our crack reporters, Cindy Perman and Jane Wells, to find some levity amid all this seriousness. May we offer you a Keynesian cocktail with a side of bacon?

Why a Pony? To be clear, there were no ponies harmed in the making of this blog. The blog’s name, “There Must Be a Pony In Here Somewhere,” comes from an old joke, a favorite of Ronald Reagan’s, that essentially means, with a pile of you-know-what this big, there MUST be a pony—a bright side—in here somewhere!

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The Next Crisis — Labor Shortages?

Published: Monday, 22 Mar 2010 | 10:27 AM ET
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By: Cindy Perman
CNBC.com Staff Writer

Sorry, Boomers, it’s not your fault.

Much blame has been placed on the Boomer generation for staying in their jobs too long due to the economy and denying the rest of us the promotions that are rightly ours!

[pounding fist on desk]

But now, it seems that may just be some misguided recession aggression — and we owe them a pretty big apology.

A new study shows there may actually be labor shortages by 2018.

“If the Baby Boom generation retires from the labor force at the same rate and age as current older workers, the Baby Bust generation that follows will likely be too small to fill many of the projected new jobs,” Barry Bluestone, a professor at Northeastern University and co-author of the report, said.

"There's an enormous aging of the work force, with a very small increase in the 'prime age' work force," which is 18 to 54 or 64, Bluestone explained. "That's a tiny group because it's all part of the Baby Bust generation."

The report, "After the Recovery: Help Needed," is based on projections for population growth, based on U.S. Census data, as well as forecasts for job growth and labor-force participation from the Labor Department.

Historically, after an economy recovers from a recession, there are labor shortages. This happened after World War II and in the early 1960s. And, while this recession is considered the worst since the Great Depression, a similar pattern is expected to emerge in the next 10 years, Bluestone and co-author Mark Melnik, deputy director for research at the Boston Redevelopment Authority, report.

They clarify, however, that it may take two or three years before you'll start to see spot shortages.

And, Bluestone adds, they were conservative in their growth projections — projecting 1 percent per year, as opposed to growth of 2 percent or more in prior recoveries.

The findings suggest that 14.6 million new nonfarm jobs will be added to payrolls between 2008 and 2018 and that by the end of that span, five million could be unfilled.

Such a loss of output would cost the economy as much as $3 trillion over five years, the study suggests.

Now, I know what you're thinking — But aren't Boomers staying in the workforce longer so they make up the gaping hole in their retirement savings?

Yes, and the study suggests that even that may not be enough to stave off a labor shortage.

So, the study takes it a step further, suggesting that the potential for such shortages means encouraging workers 55 and older to engage in "encore careers" — in places where there will be the biggest shortages — "will be vital to meeting work-force shortages and critical social needs.”

The study lists 15 jobs that will provide the largest number of “encore career” opportunities. Not surprisingly, many of them are in health care:

  • Primary, secondary and special-education teachers
  • Registered nurses
  • Home health aides
  • Personal and home-care aides
  • Nursing aides, orderlies and attendants
  • Medical assistants
  • Licensed practical and licensed vocational nurse
  • Business-operations specialists
  • General and operations managers
  • Child-care workers
  • Teacher assistants
  • Receptionists and information clerks
  • Medical and health-service managers
  • Clergy
  • Social and human-service assistants

"Many of these jobs will go begging unless older workers move into them and make them their encore careers," Bluestone writes in the report.

So, dear Boomers, please accept our sincerest apology. But please, if you must keep working after 55, consider being a priest or information clerk. Godspeed. The restrooms are to your left and the exit is to the right.

The Pony on Jobs:

Questions? Comments? Email me at or drop a line in the comment box below.

More from The Pony Blog: ponyblog.cnbc.com

© 2012 CNBC.com


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