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Retail Trade: This Line For Returns

Wednesday, 7 Apr 2010 | 5:30 PM ET

If you game retail stocks chances are you’re eager for the same-store sales data out Thursday.

Analysts, on average, are expecting same-store to have increased by 6.2 percent in March, with heavily battered teen apparel chains showing some of the biggest improvements.

That would mark the seventh straight month of improving sales, according to Thomson Reuters data, and compares with a 5 percent decline a year ago.

Easter's early arrival on April 4 provided a major boost, as sales typically tick up two weeks ahead of the holiday and kick off spring shopping.

Beyond the holiday effect, the results should make it clear whether shoppers are feeling better about spending as corporate layoffs ease and more signs point to economic growth.

"It's not just an early Easter, it's that the consumer is rebounding," says Liz Dunn, an analyst at Thomas Weisel Partners. "Last year there was a tremendous amount of fear ... and a feeling that you couldn't find a bottom."

Early Returns: Retail
Retail earnings outlook before the reports, with Deborah Weinswig, Citi analyst.

And don’t forget retail earnings are right around the corner.

Alcoa kicks off earnings season next week, and Thursday’s same-store sales data will provide some critical insights as the Street gears up for a flood of results that are due in the weeks ahead.

What’s the trade?

Going into earnings Nordstrom is our top pick, explains Citi analyst Deborah Weinswig. Our price target on the stock is $50.

Ahead of same store sales I added to my position in American Eagle, says Karen Finerman.

I own Hot Topic , reveals Jon Najarian.



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Trader disclosure: On Apr 7, 2010, the following stocks and commodities mentioned or intended to be mentioned on CNBC’s Fast Money were owned by the Fast Money traders; Jon Najarian Owns owns call spreads in (PALM), (TXT), (AAPL); Jon Najarian Owns (AAPL) Call Spreads; Jon Najarian Owns (AKS), Is Short (AKS) Calls; Jon Najarian Owns (BAC) Preferred; Jon Najarian Owns (FCX), Is Short (FCX) Calls; Jon Najarian Owns (C) Preferred; Jon Najarian Owns (GS), Is Short (GS) Calls; Jon Najarian Owns (IP) Call Spreads; Jon Najarian Owns (MCD), Is Short (MCD) Calls; Jon Najarian Owns (MS) Preferred; Jon Najarian Owns (NYT); Jon Najarian Owns (PALM) Call Spreads; Jon Najarian Owns (RIMM), Is Short (RIMM) Calls; Jon Najarian Owns (WFC) Preferred; Jon Najarian Owns (WMT), Is Short (WMT) Calls; Jon Najarian Owns (PALM) Call Spreads, (TXT) Call Spreads, (AAPL) Call Spreads; Terranova Owns Gold, Oil; Terranova Is Short (XLY); Kelly Owns (FXE) Puts; Finerman's Firm Is Short (IYR), (IJR), (IWM), (MDY), (SPY); Finerman's Firm Is Long S&P Puts; Finerman Owns (AAPL); Finerman's Firm Owns (BAC), (BAC) Leap; Finerman Owns (BAC), (BAC) Preferred; Finerman's Firm And Finerman Own (CVS); Finerman's Firm And Finerman Own (JPM); Finerman Owns (USO); Finerman's Firm And Finerman Own (WFC) Preferred; Finerman's Firm Owns (WMT), (YUM), (MCD), (SKS); Funds Managed By Dennis Gartman Are Short S&P 500; Funds Managed By Dennis Gartman Are Short Euro; Funds Managed By Dennis Gartman Are Short Yen’ Funds Managed By Dennis Gartman Are Long Gold; Funds Managed By Dennis Gartman Are Long Natural Gas Trusts; Funds Managed By Dennis Gartman Are Long Copper; Funds Managed By Dennis Gartman Own (AAPL); Funds Managed By Dennis Gartman Own (DRI); Funds Managed By Dennis Gartman Own (FCX); Funds Managed By Dennis Gartman Own (GLD); Funds Managed By Dennis Gartman Own (PNRA); Funds Managed By Dennis Gartman Are Short (RIMM); Funds Managed By Dennis Gartman Are Short (SPLS)

For Deborah Weinswig
Citi Employees Own (WMT)
A Citi Employee Owns (JCP)
A Citi Employee Owns (LOW)
Citigroup Global Markets Or Affiliates Owns 1% Or More Of (SKS)
Citigroup Global Markets Or Affiliates Has Managed Or Co-Managed An Offering Of (KR), (SVU), (WMT) In Past 12 Months
Citigroup Global Markets Or Affiliates Have Received Investment Banking Compensation For Services Provided In Past 12 Months From (KR), (SKS), (SVU), (WMT)
Citigroup Global Markets Or Affiliate Received Non-Investment Banking Compensation In Past 12 Months From (HD), (JCP), (KSS), (KR), (M), (SWY), (SVU), (WAG), (WMT), (COST)
(KR), (SKS), (SVU), (WMT) Are Or In Past 12 Months Were Investment Banking Clients Of Citigroup Global Markets
(CVS), (HD), (JCP), (KSS), (KR), (M), (SWY), (SKS), (SVU), (WAG), (WMT),

(COST) Are Or In Past 12 Montsh Were Clients Of Citigroup Global Markets (Non-Investment Banking, Securities-Related Services)
(HD), (JCP), (KSS), (KR), (M), (SWY), (SVU), (WAG), (WMT), (COST) Are Or In Past 12 Months Were Clients Of Citigroup Global Markets (Non-Investment-Banking, Non-Securities Related Services)
Citigroup Global Markets Is A Market Maker In (CVS), (M), (COST)
Citigroup Global Markets And/Or Affiliates Has A Significant Financial Interest In Relation To (CVS), (HD), (JCP), (KSS), (KR), (LOW), (M), (JWN), (SWY), (SKS), (SVU), (WMT), (COST)
Citigroup Global Markets Or Affiliates Beneficially Owns 5% Or More Of (SKS)

For Richard Kang
Emerging Global Advisors Owns Jiangxi Copper Co. HK Listed Shares In Its ETFs
Emerging Global Advisors Owns China Telecom Corp. HK Listed Shares In Its ETF

For Ben Fulton
Invesco PowerShares Sponsors And Manages (XLYS), (XLPS), (XLES), (XLFS), (XLVS), (XLIS), (XLKS), (XLBS), (XLUS)




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