Warning — This Market Is Tiring: Elliott Wave Analyst
There are a lot of "warnings signs" that markets may have come too far, too fast, said Steve Hochberg, chief market analyst at Elliott Wave International.
“In our view, extreme opinions that are shared widely probably constitute the single best indicator of an imppending change of trend in the market," Hochberg told CNBC.
"We’re seeing a whole host of indicators lining up on one side of the ledger, which is the opposite side of where they were in the first quarter of 2009.”
Hochberg noted that the CBOE volatility index (VIX), widely considered to be the best gauge of fear in the market, "collapsed" from a record high in the fourth quarter of 2008. The index closed at its lowest level in 10 years on Wednesday.
“There are a whole host of indicators that suggest this market is tiring,” he said.
“Safety pays right now and if we’re right, this market is in the last vestiges of the bear market rally.”
“Psychology turned in 2009 and now we’re on the opposite end of that extreme, which is why stock prices are up and the economy is showing better results,” he said. “But once stock prices turn down, that’s a good signal that social mood has turned lower too.”
- Watch Hochberg's Previous Appearance on CNBC (Feb. 17, 2010)
More Market Point/Counterpoint:
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No immediate information was available for Hochberg or his firm.