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Netflix 360: Will Netflix Shares Gain After Earnings?

Considering shares of Netflix are up nearly 60% year to date, how should you game the stock into and after earnings on Wednesday?

Seems like a good time for Fast Money 360. Find out what fundamentals, technicals and insights from the options world all suggest lie ahead for this stock!

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FUNDAMENTALS

Citi analyst Mark Mahaney is not terribly excited. He tells us, “we would definitely not be buyers into the print; the stock's up over 30% intra-quarter and it's trading at over 30 times earnings”

Although he thinks Netflix numbers should be good; beating expectations, he adds, “The problem here is that given the valuation, given the stock run up, they are required to materially beat the Street.”

And Mahaney doesn’t think it’s in the cards. However, that’s not to say he’s entirely bearish – he’s not.

”We'd be looking to buy perhaps on a correction but we would not be buying into the print,” he concludes.

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CHARTS

By contrast technical analyst John Roque of WJB couldn’t be more bullish.

Looking at the charts, he tells us, “the trend is tremendous. In fact it's so strong, the trend is almost obscene!”

That's how pristine the Netflix chart looks from his technical eye. But don’t rush in here.

Roque also says, “it's overbought like a lot of strong momentum stocks in this market. ”We look to buy it on any consolidation or pullback and we have a target of $100.

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OPTIONS

Jon Najarian of OptionMonster is modestly bullish. He tells the desk, “the options are pricing in about a 13% move.”

Of course, it can be in either direction.

However Najarian is biased toward the upside. “I think it’s all about the the iPad,” he explains. “The Netflix app is one of the most popular apps on the iPad.”

In fact, it’s so popular he adds, “I think that’s one of the reasons to own the stock going forward and why they might beat on earnings.”

What else must you know?

The pattern in this market has been if you don't crush on earnings you get sold-off, says Brian Kelly of Kanundrum. I just can't be a buyer of Netflix ahead of earnings. It's just not in my risk profile.




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Trader disclosure: On Apr 21, 2010, the following stocks and commodities mentioned or intended to be mentioned on CNBC’s Fast Money were owned by the Fast Money traders; Terranova Is Short June 2010 Crude Oil; Terranova Is Long December 2011 Crude Oil; Terranova Is Short Australian Dollar; Terranova Is Short Japanese Yen; Terranova Is Short Gold; Terranova Is Short (PCLN); Terranova Is Short (BRE); Terranova Is Long Japanese Yen; Terranova Owns (C), (XCO), (SWN), (TER), (HES), (AXP), (XCL); Terranova Owns (C) May Calls; Scaramucci Owns (GS), Skybridge Owns (GS); Najarian Owns (C) Calls;Najarian Owns (CLF) Call Spread; Najarian Owns (GLW) Call Spread; Najarian Owns (MRVL); Najarian Owns (UNP); Najarian Owns (YHOO) Call Spread; Kelly Owns (CXW) Calls; Kelly Owns (FXE) Puts; Scaramucci Owns (CIT), Skybridge Owns (CIT)

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