A SHOO-In to Beat the Street?
“The shoe stocks are roaring,” Cramer said Thursday. “Totally en fuego.”
Deckers Outdoor , maker of UGGs, has surged 174% since his Oct. 13 recommendation, and it’s up 17% just since he reiterated the call on March 3. Skechers USA has climbed 33% since Cramer gave it the thumbs-up on March 8. And since March 22, when he highlighted the best of the best in the footwear group, DSW has gained 19%, Nike 4% and Steve Madden 21%. That’s an average increase of 14% over a period of time when the S&P 500 climbed only 2%. That’s huge outperformance.
“And I don’t think the run is finished,” Cramer said. “Far from it.”
Not with department stores like Macy’s saying that shoe sales are still going strong. And Bank of America’s research note, which showed footwear as the best-performing category at Kohl’s and J.C. Penney for three of the last six months and Nordstrom for that last six straight months. Plus, the great string of earnings we’ve seen this season, as company after company – Finish Line , Wolverine, Deckers , among others – delivers upside surprises.
Given this run of earnings beats, Cramer thinks “the next one to report could be a monster.” And Steve Madden is on deck for Tuesday, May 4, before the opening bell. Cramer wouldn’t normally recommend a trade during earnings season, but he thinks SHOO might be too good to ignore.
Ever since founder Steve Madden returned to his eponymous company full time in 2005 – he had been in jail for securities fraud and other charges – this company has consistently outperformed its peers, even growing sales and earnings per share through the recession. And right now SHOO is sitting on $8.50 of cash per share and no debt, making possible a big and “transformational acquisition,” as Cramer called it.
The stock is trading at 14.4 times 2011 earnings, down from its 15.9 multiple in 2004. Considering the company has a long-term growth rate of 15%, Cramer thinks that larger multiple is still a fair price to pay for SHOO.
One other thing to note: SHOO is doing a three-for-two stock split and will trade split adjusted starting on Monday.
“The shoe bull market is on fire,” Cramer said. “Steve Madden is the one to buy ahead of its quarterly report.”
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