A Greek debt default could send the European banking sector into a frantic balance-sheet search for contagion as firms try to gauge how much they stand to lose. But which banks are most at risk as the European Union and International Monetary Fund scramble to help the country avert default?
"There are three banks that clearly look most at risk for us, which are Fortis, Dexia and Credit Agricole," Arturo De Frias, research analyst at Evolution Securities, told CNBC Friday.
"Fortis has an exposure that's very high. It's more than 50 percent of their annual net asset value," De Frias said.
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Dexia's exposure is around 30 percent, he added. But Credit Agricole is a "special case" because it has a limited exposure to bonds but has the biggest subsidiary in Greece. Societe General is fourth on the list of most exposed banks, he said.
If the European debt crisis stops in Greece, the average impact for the European banking sector would be fairly limited, according to De Frias.
"Even if you assume a 70 percent loss of value, whether it is a default or a change in the terms, the impact would be only 1.6 percent of the net asset value of the banks," he said.
De Frias added that he doesn't see significant risk of default-risk contagion spreading to other parts of Europe.
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