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Sell On April 30th And Go Away?

You’ve heard the expression sell in May and go away, well this year maybe we should change it to sell on April 30th and go away.

We know it doesn't rhyme but the market is looking pretty ugly right now.

Bears dominated Friday’s market action, sending the Dow lower by triple digits, with big uncertainties threatening to derail the rally further. They include:
- an escalating natural disaster in Louisiana
- the ability of Greece to borrow
- a criminal review into Goldman Sachs

How should you be positioned now?

Strategy Session with the Fast Money traders

- GOLDMAN FACING CRIMINAL CHARGES

Goldman landed squarely in the headlines again on Friday after the Wall Street Journal said Manhattan prosecutors are in the early stages of a criminal investigation of the firm.

Shares tumbled below the crucial $150 level following not one but two analyst downgrades with an S&P analyst Matthew Albrecht citing the company's growing legal woes. (Click here to see our interview with Albrecht during the Halftime Report)

As you likely know the latest charges come in the wake of a civil suit brought by the SEC. Goldman has vehemently denied the charges calling them "unfounded in both law and fact.”

What’s the trade?

I would not spend my time trying to pick the bottom in Goldman, says Pete Najarian, or you’ll get a hand full of you know what.

Technically the stock looks like its heading down $135.25, the lows we saw last summer, adds Guy Adami.

I was long Goldman but my trade was stopped out, says Gary Kaminksy. Right now there are a lot of unknowns. Considering all the other ways to make money I’d stay away.

If these developments drive Goldman into a settlement, I'd considering looking at the stock, counters Karen Finerman. That could suggest the worst is all on the table. But I have to wonder will these developments give the Obama administration the juice is needs to really clamp down on Wall Street.

In the space, I’d keep my eye on Barclay’s , counsels Tim Seymour. They’re also the subject of an investigation. Overall I think there are better places to make money than financials right now.

If you’re looking for a trade look at Jefferies , adds Adami. That’s a stock that performed well in a terrible tape.

Looking at financials more broadly, investors are not rotating out of Goldman and into other financial names, explains Steve Grasso of Stuart Frankel on the Halftime Report. They’re just dropping the financials, all together. Combine that with the trouble in energy due to the oil spill and stocks may have a hard time advancing broadly. I'm a seller.

What do you think? We want to know!

*Find out what else veteran trader Gary Kaminsky has to say about these developments. Watch the video now.

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SELL IN MAY

May trading gets underway on Monday. Will the old adage "sell in May and go away" play out this year?

According to the Financial Times, the theory worked from 1980 through 2000, with the markets producing positive returns only 50% of the time in the May through October period.

But the theory has failed the last 9-years, with investors actually seeing more positive returns in the May through October period than in the November through April period.

Sell In May?
Market Performance 1980-2000
% Positive Returns
November- April 60%
May- October 70%
Source: FT.com

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GREECE IS THE WORD THIS WEEKEND

Euro-zone finance ministers are expected to meet this weekend to discuss the terms and conditions of the Greece bailout package.

What should you expect?

I don’t expect the finance ministers come to any kind of resolution that really matters to investors, says Dennis Gartman. At issue is Germany. There’s an election looming and so much of Germany is against any kind of bailout, I just don’t see how anything meaningful can get done.

As a result I’d expect the euro to move lower and gold to go higher, he says. I’d play it long the GLD and short the FXE .




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Trader disclosure: On Apr 30, 2010, the following stocks and commodities mentioned or intended to be mentioned on CNBC’s Fast Money were owned by the Fast Money traders; Adami Owns (AGU), (C), (GS), (INTC), (MSFT), (NUE), (BTU); Najarian Owns (AKAM) Call Spread; Najarian Owns (PG) Calls; Najarian Owns (JEF) Calls; Najarian Owns (KGC) Calls; Najarian Owns (C) Calls; Najarian Owns (CBS) Calls; Najarian Owns (NRG) Call Spread; Najarian Owns (TEVA); Najarian Owns (YHOO) Call Spread; Grasso Owns (NDAQ), (DYN), (LPX), (ASTM), (ABK), (BAC), (BGP), (C), (CVGI), (JPM), (NEM), (PRST), (PFE), (BA), (T), (CSCO), (X); Stutland Is Short (SPY) Through Options; Stutland Owns (XLF) Call Spread, Is Short Strangles, Is Long Downside Put; Stutland Owns (CVX); Stutland Owns (WFC) Corporate Bond; Stutland Is Short (BAC) Straddle, Owns (BAC); Stutland Is Short (GLD) Put Spread, Is Long 1x2 Call Spread; Stutland Owns (SLV) Calls, Is Short (SLV) Puts; Stutland Owns (TXN), Is Short (TXN) Call; Najarian Owns (PG) Calls; Seymour Owns (EEM), (AAPL), (BAC), (GOOG) (MSFT); Finerman's Firm Is Short (IWM), (IYR), (MDY); Finerman's Firm Is Long S&P Puts; Finerman Owns (AAPL), (AKAM); Finerman's Firm Owns (BAC), (BAC) Leap; Finerman Owns (BAC), (BAC) Preferred; Finerman's Firm And Finerman Own (CVS); Finerman Owns (GOOG); Finerman's Firm And Finerman Own (JPM); Finerman's Firm Owns (KFT); Finerman Owns (WFC) Preferred; Finerman's Firm Owns (BBY); Finemran's Firm Owns (BP), (BP) Calls; Finerman's Firm Owns (RIG), (RIG) Calls; Finerman Owns (BBY); Finerman Owns (RIG), (RIG) Calls

For Dennis Gartman
Funds Managed By Dennis Gartman Are Short Euro
Funds Managed By Dennis Gartman Are Short Yen
Funds Managed By Dennis Gartman Are Long Gold
Funds Managed By Dennis Gartman Own (DRI)
Funds Managed By Dennis Gartman Are Long Canadian Dollar, Australian Dollar
Funds Managed By Dennis Gartman Are Short Euro, Sterling, Yen
Funds Managed By Dennis Gartman Own (GLD)

For Steve Grasso
Stuart Frankel And Its Partners Own (AMR)
Stuart Frankel And Its Partners Own (BAX)
Stuart Frankel And Its Partners Own (DYN)
Stuart Frankel And Its Partners Own (CUBA)
Stuart Frankel And Its Partners Own (DYN)
Stuart Frankel And Its Partners Own (GERN)
Stuart Frankel And Its Partners Own (HSPO)
Stuart Frankel And Its Partners Own (MERC)
Stuart Frankel And Its Partners Own (NWS.A)
Stuart Frankel And Its Partners Own (NYX)
Stuart Frankel And Its Partners Own (PALM)
Stuart Frankel And Its Partners Own (PDE)
Stuart Frankel And Its Partners Own (PFE)
Stuart Frankel And Its Partners Own (PRST)
Stuart Frankel And Its Partners Own (RDC)
Stuart Frankel And Its Partners Own (TLM)
Stuart Frankel And Its Partners Own (XRX)
Stuart Frankel And Its Partners Own (SDS)
Stuart Frankel And Its Partners Are Short (QQQQ)
Stuart Frankel And Its Partners Are Short (CL)
Stuart Frankel And Its Partners Are Short (AAPL)

For Brian Stutland
Stutland Equities Is A Market Maker In VIX
Stutland Equities Is A Market Maker In SPX Options And Futures
Stutland Equities Has A VIX Long Position, Short Volatility
Stutland Equities Has A SPX Short Position, Long Volatility

For Matthew Albrecht
Standard & Poor's Other Affiliates May Provide Services To (GS)

For Patty Edwards:
Edwards Owns (ERF) For Clients
Edwards Owns (MCD) For Clients
Edwards Owns (HD) For Clients


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