GO
Loading...

Year-Long Rally Is Over: Charts

The year-long trend upwards in the stock market is over and commodities are also set to correct, according to Robin Griffiths, technical analyst at Cazenove Capital. As a result, Griffiths suggested investors look for risk-averse trades.

"The rally, brilliant though it was, was a rally in a bear market and that rally is now over," Griffiths told CNBC Monday.

"The uptrend is broken and it's got further to fall but in an orderly manner," he said. "At the moment the trend is 'risk off'. Up until April the trend was 'risk on.'"

"If there is a rally now, it won't make a new high and you'll find people selling in to it," he added.

There will be about a 25 percent pullback in the market from the high reached in April through to October, Griffiths predicted.

"There will be a mid-summer rally," he said. "But the final end of the correction will be in October, usually latish October."

The rally which will likely take place July into August will be a "significant rally," one which may last four to six weeks, according to Griffiths.

The UK's FTSE-100 index and Germany's DAX index are two of Europe's "good markets," Griffiths told CNBC, adding that the others "have all clearly broken down."

China's Shanghai Composite index is the world's "lead market" and an indicator of where the Western markets are headed, according to Griffiths.

"We are linked to this market. It is now the lead market and it hasn't finished that fall yet," he added.

"The commodity market has also broken its uptrend. It is making a top," Griffiths told CNBC. "Even gold is likely to not go higher than wherever it is in early June."

"I think you'll see a significant several months long pullback even in gold," he added.

Copper, nickel, aluminum and other similar commodities have already made highs and will now have a "significant retrace," Griffiths said.

"So, there's no where to run, money in the bank or risk-averse trade is where you want to be for the duration of the summer," Griffiths advised.

______________________________

CNBC Data Pages:

______________________________

Disclaimer

Featured