Does Bad Jobs Report Mean We're Headed for a Double Dip?
Published: Friday, 4 Jun 2010 | 1:12 PM ET
The stock market appears to be underwhelmed by today's employment numbers, which include a slowing of private job growth and overall job creation credited mostly to temporary Census hiring. Many investors have questioned whether the US economy can fully recover without significant job growth, which leads to today's second Kudlow Caucus question:
Does today's disappointing jobs number up the odds on a double dip recession?
Take our poll below and tell us what you think! Watch "The Kudlow Report" tonight at 7pm ET and find out what out caucus members have to say or check back here later for a summary from our caucus members.
The Kudlow Caucus Breakdown
Jerry BowyerChief Economist, Benchmark Financial Network
But only a little. It does however settle the question of whether or not this is a jobless recovery. It is, and anyone who denies that fact is just data-immune.
Kellyanne ConwayCEO and President
the polling company™
This is just one lagging indicator in a batch of troubling signs. Still, we are not inching toward a double-dip so much as treading water.
David P. GoldmanSenior Editor
Yes, yes, yes. Small business has been choking to death according to all available data (Discover and NFIB surveys) and that's the source of job creation. Consumer spending had already stalled before the latest stock market bust. Precautionary saving will increase, consumer spending will fall, and the economy will sputter - I give 50% odds of a double dip.
It's not disappointing. Employment growth is up. Even when corrected for temporary Census Bureau jobs, the data confirms a trend of private-sector job additions. The unemployment figure includes formerly "discouraged workers" now returning to the work force, creating a lagging indicator, so that's the wrong metric to read when examining GDP growth. The Obama Recovery continues.
Jim LaCampPortfolio Manager, Portfolio Focus, RBC Wealth Management
Co-Host, Opening Bell Radio Show, Biz Radio Network
I don't see how anyone could say otherwise. Its not a certainty but raises the odds. Leading indicators have peaked, housing is double dipping already and banks still aren't lending. PLUS you get new taxes coming with increased healthcare costs!
Art LafferFmr. Reagan Economic Advisor
Chief Investment Officer, Laffer Investments
It's already been 100%. It's baked into the bread.
Donald L. Luskin Chief Investment Officer, Trend Macrolytics LLC
It ups the odds, but I still don’t think there will be a double dip. We are in an “expansionless recovery,” but not a recession.
Steve MooreSr. Economics Writer, The Wall Street Journal Editorial Board
I think that this is a mighty shockingly discouraging jobs report. Jobs are going south not north. We should be seeing 300,000-400,000 jobs per month.
University of California, Irvine
But I have maintained the most likely scenario is slower growth that will feel like a recession rather than negative growth.
Money & Politics Columnist
The recovery needs to be self-sustaining without government help. And the lack of private-sector job growth hints that business isn't quite there yet. The probability is still that the recovery continues, but today's jobs report gives the bears a bit more ammo.
Former Labor Secretary
Professor of Public Policy, UC Berkeley
We're not getting out of the gravitational pull of the Great Recession. Consumers are 70 percent of the economy and they don't have the dough. They can't any longer treat their homes as ATM's, as they did before the Great Recession.
Political Strategist and Campaign Innovator
Government spending should increase at this time… yes, I said increase, to avoid this.
Many investors have questioned whether the U.S economy can fully recover without significant job growth...