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Halftime: Goldman Weakness Signals Rough Afternoon?

The sigh of relief was almost audible on Wall Street, Thursday, after 2 new pieces data suggested the global recovery hadn’t fallen apart completely.

First Beijing confirmed exports jumped 50 percent in May, unofficial numbers were released earlier in the week. Second, the government of Spain said demand for its bonds was robust.

However the Fast Money traders were concerned that both the Dowand S&P may give back gains in afternoon trade and then some.

What should you be watching?

Instant Insights with the Fast Money trader

I’m concerned about the move in Goldman Sachs, says Guy Adami. It’s been a market barometer and it’s trading sharply lower. Also the Vix is down which probably signals complacency.

I have to tell you I’m cautious, he adds. I’d counsel investors to sell into strength. Ultimately I expect the market to break below 1040.

Looking at Goldman, a new report from the Financial Times suggests the SEC may launch a second probe into dealings done by the firm. That may have something to do with the move lower in Goldman shares, explains Brian Kelly.

But you can’t deny that lately Goldman has been about 2-hours ahead of the S&P, Kelly adds. We may roll over.

I’m watching 1087 on the S&P as a long term trend line, adds Steve Grasso. Until the market closes above that level I’m a seller. There are just too many hurdles to clear for me to feel bullish.

I’m not bullish either, reveals Patty Edwards. I think there are names investors can pick up but big picture I think we’re going lower. If you’re looking to play stock picker, I like JCrew .

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EURO: DEAD CAT BOUNCE?

The euro rose on Thursday, with investors regaining at least a little more confidence in the currency. Adding to the tailwind, the head of China's national pension fund said the currency would weather Europe's debt crisis.

What must you know?

Looking at the euro longer term I think it goes lower but it was due for a bounce, says Steve Grasso.

I agree that the move in the euro was a bounce but nothing more, adds Brian Kelly. The problems in Europe haven’t changed.

I happen to think the euro is going to parity, adds Guy Adami.

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MOVE OF THE DAY: BP

Shares of BP traded higher after a new report from Oppenheimer Equity Research called Wednesday's sell-off "panic selling," adding, "investors dumped BP shares on fear of unrealistically high potential liabilities."

The report said BP shares currently price in $60 billion worth of potential liabilities, "which we think is very unrealistic."

Oppenheimer also shrugged off fears that the company will go bankrupt, be acquired by a rival or fire chief executive Tony Hayward.

What should you make of it?

I think you can go long for the short-term, says Guy Adami, but make no mistake it’s a short term trade.

There’s chatter that PetroChina might buy BP, adds Brian Kelly, but I can’t imagine that happening. The political issues alone would be enormous.

On Wednesday's Fast Money Whitney Tilson of T2 told us he sees current weakness as a buying opportunity. (Click here to read "Crazy or Sly: Tilson Increases BP Position.")

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EAR TO THE WALL: ENERGY OVERSOLD?

Shares of the OIH rallied on Thursday after a precipitous drop earlier in the week. Is it a sign the energy industry will exit from this mess in one piece?

For insights we turn to Tudor Pickering Holt analyst David Heikkinen.

He tells us a number of names have been unjustly punished.

”Noble Energy and Plains Exploration both have assets in the Gulf and were crushed because of it, but they have no exposure to the spill itself,” he says.

*Check out our entire interview with David Heikkinen. Watch the video above.


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CALL TO THE FLOOR: MEL KARMAZIN

You might call it the comeback of the year. Shares of Sirius XM have rallied over 60% since January. And just last month the company raised its 2010 earnings forecast saying the recovery in auto sales and consumer spending has boosted new subscriptions.

Mel Karamazin, CEO of Sirius XM tells Fast Money “we increased our subscriber growth by 50%… we’re really doing pretty well.”

He also says that as more new cars equipped with satellite radio become used cars, he sees tremendous opportunity.

How about Howard Stern? Will he re-sign? Get the latest from Mel Karamazin. Watch the video now!

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TRADE TO GO: TEXAS INSTRUMENTS

If you’re bullish, Texas Instruments looks cheap, says Guy Adami, but it’s only interesting if you’re bullish.

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CALL THE CLOSE

Guy Adami; I’m a seller.
Brian Kelly; I think the best thing to do is stay small.
Patty Edwards: I’d stay hedged.
Steve Grasso: I’m a seller. I think there are too many hurdles.


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Trader disclosure: On June 10, 2010, the following stocks and commodities mentioned or intended to be mentioned on CNBC’s Fast Money were owned by the Fast Money traders; Adami owns (AGU), (BTU), (C), (GS), (INTC), (MSFT); Kelly owns (GS) puts; Kelly owns (SPY) puts; Grasso owns (ABK), (BAC), (BGP), (C), (DYN), (JPM), (LPX), (NDAQ)

For Patty Edwards
Edwards owns (AA) for clients
Edwards owns (GE) for clients
Edwards owns (NSC) for clients
Edwards owns (UNP) for clients
Edwards owns (INTC) for clients
Edwards owns (STM) for clients
Edwards owns (TXN) for clients
Edwards owns (NVDA) for clients
Edwards owns (AAPL) for clients
Edwards owns (HPQ) for clients
Edwards owns (MSFT) for clients
Edwards owns (DELL) for clients
Edwards owns (GOOG) for clients
Edwards owns (JPM) for clients
Edwards owns (BAC) for clients
Edwards owns (C) for clients
Edwards owns (WFC) for clients
Edwards owns (MS) for clients
Edwards owns (RIG) for clients
Edwards owns (NE) for clients
Edwards owns (SLB) for clients
Edwards owns (HAL) for clients
Edwards owns (DO) for clients
Edwards owns (VXX) for clients
Edwards owns (SPY) for clients
Edwards owns (QQQQ) for clients
Edwards owns (GLD) for clients
Edwards owns (JCG) for clients

For Brian Kelly
Kanundrum Capital is short (GS)
Kanundrum Capital is short (FXI)
Kanundrum Capital is short (RSX)
Kanundrum Capital is short (XLY)
Kanundrum Capital is short (XLK)
Kanundrum Capital is short (XLE)
Kanundrum Capital is short (XLB)
Kanundrum Capital is short (FCX)
Kanundrum Capital is short EURO
Kanundrum Capital is short POUND
Kanundrum Capital is short SWILL
Kanundrum Capital U.S. DOLLAR
Kanundrum Capital owns (GLD)
Kanundrum Capital owns (TLT)
Kanundrum Capital owns (GFI)
Kanundrum Capital owns (AUY)

For Steve Grasso
Stuart Frankel & Co and it’s partners own (BAX)
Stuart Frankel & Co and it’s partners own (CUBA)
Stuart Frankel & Co and it’s partners own (DHR)
Stuart Frankel & Co and it’s partners own (GERN)
Stuart Frankel & Co and it’s partners own (HON)
Stuart Frankel & Co and it’s partners own (HSPO)
Stuart Frankel & Co and it’s partners own (MERC)
Stuart Frankel & Co and it’s partners own (NWS.A)
Stuart Frankel & Co and it’s partners own (NYX)
Stuart Frankel & Co and it’s partners own (PDE)
Stuart Frankel & Co and it’s partners own (PFE)
Stuart Frankel & Co and it’s partners own (PRST)
Stuart Frankel & Co and it’s partners own (RDC)
Stuart Frankel & Co and it’s partners own (SYMC)
Stuart Frankel & Co and it’s partners own (TLM)
Stuart Frankel & Co and it’s partners own (TRV)
Stuart Frankel & Co and it’s partners own (XRX)
Stuart Frankel & Co and it’s partners own (SDS)
Stuart Frankel & Co and it’s partners own (TBT)

For David Heikkinen
Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Intends to Receive/Seek Investment Banking Compensation from Anadarko Petroleum
Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Intends to Receive/Seek Investment Banking Compensation from BP
Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Intends to Receive/Seek Investment Banking Compensation from ExxonMobil

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