Peter Morici is a professor at the Smith School of Business, University of Maryland, and former Chief Economist at the U.S. International Trade Commission.
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Peter Morici
Professor, Smith School of Business, University of Maryland
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Eighteen months in office, President Obama should be evaluated on what he accomplished. On the President’s watch, unemployment has jumped from 7.7 to 9.5 percent, the jobless count has increased 2.7 million, and 3.4 million more Americans have quit looking for work altogether.
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It is the season for economic forecasts, and I have been polled by several published surveys. Like other forecasters, I see growth too weak to create enough jobs to pull down unemployment-private sector jobs could even stagnate. The risk of a double dip is at 50 percent. If that happens, the economy likely will stay down for many years.
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If the economy goes down a second time, it will not likely recover easily or quickly. The unemployment rate will rise into the teens and conditions reminiscent of the Great Depression will prevail through much of the nation.
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The U.S. economy has had two crises that were followed by long periods of depressed economic activity, high unemployment, and instability lasting more than a decade...Conditions are emerging that could cause that to happen again, and without a radical change in policy, the nation is at risk of a terrible calamity.
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Friday, forecasters expect the Labor Department to report the economy shed about 110 thousand jobs in June and unemployment rose to 9.8 percent. Economists expect the private sector created about 110,000 jobs but government employment dropped twice that amount, as many temporary census jobs disappeared. Twelve months into recovery from such a deep recession, this is a terrible performance.
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Squawk Box
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Jeff Weiss, Tejas Securities Group, provides a technical look at market trends, as the Dow closes above the 14,000 mark.
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Jack Bogle,The Vanguard Group; David Bianco, Deutsche Bank; Ian Shepherdson, Pantheon Macroeconomic Advisors; and Barry Knapp, Barclays, provide strategies to play the market's momentum.
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Mad Money with Jim Cramer
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Jim Cramer says Sunday's game could shed new light on the market's advance. Really.
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Fast Money
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The Kudlow Report
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Former New York City Mayor Ed Koch has died from congestive heart failure. TV Journalist Chuck Scarborough of WNBC New York; Mark Simone, WOR Radio Talk Show host and CNBC's Contributors Keith Boykin and James Pethokoukis, discuss Koch's NYC legacy.
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