GO
Loading...

Could Jobs Report Put Bottom In S&P?

Stocks finished the day in negative territory on Thursday – though off their lows – as Wall Street braced for a wild ride ahead of the holiday week-end.

Bulls and bears will likely do battle on Friday once the widely anticipated jobs reports is released by the government, before the bell.

With employment believed to be the lynchpin for the recovery, the data will likely set the tone for the day.

What should you expect?

Instant Insights with the Fast Money traders

It wouldn’t surprise me to see a pop-back rally on Friday, says Steve Grasso. But I believe the momentum in the market ultimately takes us lower. I fully expect the S&P to fall below 1,000 long-term.

I also expect to see a relief rally on Friday but if we get one, I'd sell into it, counsels Guy Adami. Right now, rallies are meant to be sold.

I don’t think the next 50 to 75 handles in the S&P will be lower, counters Joe Terranova. The currency markets appear to be turning a corner, with the dollar getting weaker; long-term a weak dollar has a macro-bullish impact on the capital markets.

If you're looking for a market tell - here's one. If we get a very bearish jobs report and the market doesn’t drop much; I'd take it to mean the bottom is in, Terranova says.

I think the jobs report will be a dud, adds Deutsche economist Joe Lavorgna. And I think that leads the market to close higher. The market is pricing for a double dip and anything that suggests growth will probably be greeted positively.

-------

JOBS REPORT: WHAT SHOULD YOU BE WATCHING?

Taking a closer look at the jobs report, the Street is expecting a decline of 110,000 jobs, due to a reversal of May's hiring surge for temporary census jobs.

However, the ‘tell’ may be non-government hiring. Many economists had expected to see it accelerate, but an industry report on Wednesday showed a gain of only 13,000 private sector jobs.

What should you be watching?

I’d focus on private sector jobs as well as the unemployment rate, says Joe Lavorgna of Deutsche. If the unemployment rate moves down or sideways and employment in the household sector continues higher; it could signal to investors that the economy is moving in the right direction.

-------

TOPPING THE TAPE: CONSUMERS

Despite the negative close, bulls were able to push consumer shares higher with retailers seeing big gains.

What should you make of it?

I think the move higher may have been short covering, says Patty Edwards. I don’t make too much of the moves.

I’d play the space with transaction portals such as Mastercard , Visa, Amazon and Priceline.com, says Joe Terranova.

-------


TICK BY TICK: MARKET TURNS AFTER GOLDMAN REBOUND

Goldman Sachs appeared to take the reins on Thursday with the market following its every move. tick by tick.

What should you make of it?

I’m an aggressive buyer of Goldman Sachs, reveals Joe Terranova. I know all the bearish news. In the wake of the horrible tape the shares are higher and that’s telling.

Financial regulation is over 2000 pages long with a lot open ends to it and no answers, counters Steve Grasso. I think it’s a little premature to be investing in financials.

-------

STORY OF THE DAY: EURO

If you’re looking for a bull story check out the action in the euro . Despite bearish news overseas the euro continued higher.

What should you make of it?

I think the euro has put in a temporary bottom, says Tim Seymour. But I wouldn’t interpret the move as a sign of health in Europe.

The euro could bounce to 127 but a bounce needs to be sold, says Guy Adami.


-------

BUY BACKS VS. DIVIDENDS

As we officially kick off the second half on Thursday, are you better off betting on buybacks or dividends when it comes to individual stocks?

Longer term it’s much better to have a dividend than a buy back, explains Steve Grasso.

I agree, says Patty Edwards. Buybacks imply growth and attract growth investors. Dividends are a longer-term commitment, she explains. If a company institutes a dividend or ups a dividend they’re typically going to do it for a long time.


-------

CHARTOLOGY: SECOND HALF OUTLOOK WHAT ARE THE TECHNICALS

On Tuesday Oppenheimer's Carter Worth told the desk that if the S&P closed below 1040 he was looking for a sharp slide lower. Considering the market did, in fact, close lower we thought it would be a good time to check back.

On Thursday Worth tells the desk, we’ve broken the neckline in a head and shoulders pattern in the chart of the S&P and now we're in a downtrend. I think we’re heading to 980.



______________________________________________________
Got something to to say? Send us an e-mail at fastmoney-web@cnbc.com and your comment might be posted on the Rapid Recap. If you'd prefer to make a comment but not have it published on our website send those e-mails to fastmoney@cnbc.com.

Trader disclosure: On July 1, 2010, the following stocks and commodities mentioned or intended to be mentioned on CNBC’s Fast Money were owned by the Fast Money traders; Seymour owns (AAPL), (BAC), (F), (MON); Adami owns (AGU), (BTU), (NUE), (C), (GS), (INTC), (MSFT); Adami’s wife works at Merck; Terranova owns (MON), (AGU), (KO), (XOM), (TEVA), (RDS.A), (GMCR), (UPL), (GS); Terranova is short gold; Terranova owns (GLD) July 123 puts; Terranova owns (GS) JULY 130 CALLS; Terranova owns (GS) JULY 135 CALLS; Grasso owns (ASTM), (ABK), (BAC), (BGP), (C), (CSCO), (DYN), (JPM), (LPX), (MO), (NDAQ), (PFE), (PRST)

For Steve Grasso:
Stuart Frankel & Co and it’s partners own (BAX)
Stuart Frankel & Co and it’s partners own (COG)
Stuart Frankel & Co and it’s partners own (CUBA)
Stuart Frankel & Co and it’s partners own (DHR)
Stuart Frankel & Co and it’s partners own (DYN)
Stuart Frankel & Co and it’s partners own (GERN)
Stuart Frankel & Co and it’s partners own (HSPO)
Stuart Frankel & Co and it’s partners own (IP)
Stuart Frankel & Co and it’s partners own (MERC)
Stuart Frankel & Co and it’s partners own (NWS.A)
Stuart Frankel & Co and it’s partners own (NYX)
Stuart Frankel & Co and it’s partners own (PDE)
Stuart Frankel & Co and it’s partners own (PFE)
Stuart Frankel & Co and it’s partners own (PRST)
Stuart Frankel & Co and it’s partners own (RDC)
Stuart Frankel & Co and it’s partners own (SYMC)
Stuart Frankel & Co and it’s partners own (TBT)
Stuart Frankel & Co and it’s partners own (TLM)
Stuart Frankel & Co and it’s partners own (TRV)
Stuart Frankel & Co and it’s partners own (XRX)
Stuart Frankel & Co and it’s partners own (SDS)
Stuart Frankel & Co and it’s partners are short (QQQQ)
Stuart Frankel & Co and it’s partners are short (AAPL)

For Patty Edwards
Edwards owns (AAPL) for clients
Edwards owns (AMZN) for clients
Edwards owns (BAC) for clients
Edwards owns (BBY) for clients
Edwards owns (C) for clients
Edwards owns (COP) for clients
Edwards owns (CVX) for clients
Edwards owns (DELL) for clients
Edwards owns (DO) for clients
Edwards owns (F) for clients
Edwards owns (GE) for clients
Edwards owns (GLD) for clients
Edwards owns (GOOG) for clients
Edwards owns (GLW) for clients
Edwards owns (HAL) for clients
Edwards owns (HPQ) for clients
Edwards owns (INTC) for clients
Edwards owns (JPM) for clients
Edwards owns (JNK) for clients
Edwards owns (MOS) for clients
Edwards owns (MS) for clients
Edwards owns (MSFT) for clients
Edwards owns (NE) for clients
Edwards owns (NSC) for clients
Edwards owns (NVDA) for clients
Edwards owns (PNC) for clients
Edwards owns (QQQQ) for clients
Edwards owns (RIG) for clients
Edwards owns (SLB) for clients
Edwards owns (SPY) for clients
Edwards owns (STI) for clients
Edwards owns (STM) for clients
Edwards owns (TM) for clients
Edwards owns (TM)
Edwards owns (TSLA) for clients
Edwards owns (TTM) for clients
Edwards owns (TXN) for clients
Edwards owns (UNP) for clients
Edwards owns (VXX) for clients
Edwards owns (VZ) for clients
Edwards owns (WFC) for clients
Edwards owns (WFT) for clients
Edwards owns (XOM) for clients
Edwards owns gold for clients
Edwards owns platinum for clients
Edwards owns silver for clients
Edwards owns the Russell 2000 for clients
Edwards owns the S&P500 for clients

For Joe Terranova
Terranova works for (VRTS)
Terranova is chief market strategist of Virtus Investment Partners, LTD.
Virtus Investment Partners owns more than 1% of (CASS)
Virtus Investment Partners owns more than 1% of (LDR)
Virtus Investment Partners owns more than 1% of (LPHI)
Virtus Investment Partners owns more than 1% of (MGRC)
Virtus Investment Partners owns more than 1% of (XLB)
Virtus Investment Partners owns more than 1% of (XLP)
Virtus Investment Partners owns more than 1% of (XLY)
Virtus Investment Partners owns more than 1% of (XLI)
Virtus Investment Partners owns more than 1% of (XLK)
Virtus Investment Partners owns more than 1% of (XLU)
Virtus Investment Partners owns more than 1% of (SUBK)
Virtus Investment Partners owns more than 1% of (WDFC)
Virtus Investment Partners owns more than 1% of (YDNT)
Virtus Investment Partners owns more than 1% of (DRYS)

David Riedel
***No Disclosure***

Ashraf Ladhi
***No Disclosure***

Joe Lavorgna
***No Disclosures***

Carter Worth
***No Disclosures***

Richard Kang
Funds Managed By Kang Own Shares Of Aluminum Corp. Of China
Funds Managed By Kang Own (STP)

Rich Greenfield
***No Disclosures**

Wayne Hood
***No Disclosures***

Brian Stutland
Stutland owns (TLT)
Stutland owns US Treasuries

Added Disclosures:
Seymour Owns (MSFT)
Seymour Owns (QCOM)
NBC Universal Is The Parent Company Of CNBC
Edwards Owns (PM)
Edwards Owns (PM) For Clients
Edwards Owns (CBI) For Clients
Seymour Owns (INTC)
Edwards owns (HD) for clients

CNBC.com with wires

Symbol
Price
 
Change
%Change
S&P 500
---
AMZN
---
GS
---
MA
---
PCLN
---
V
---
SPDR CD SEL
---
MCD
---

Contact Fast Money

  • Showtimes

    Halftime Report - Weekdays 12p ET
    Fast Money - Weekdays 5p ET

Halftime Report