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Thursday’s Same-Store Sales To Move Market?

Predictions are skewing positive, so how should you game retail ahead of the all-important same-store sales figures coming later this week?

According to Reuters estimates, retail sales are expected to rise 3.3% in June due to warm weather and promotions tied to Father's Day and the Memorial Day weekend.

Department stores such as Kohl's and Nordstrom are expected to post some of the largest sales gains, after having some of the biggest declines last year, according to Thomson Reuters.

While a June increase would mark the tenth consecutive month of rising sales after a year of declines, some analysts warn that the trend may not be as bullish as it appears.

Strong June sales could “mask an underlying weakness in consumer spending that will come into sharper focus in the next few months," says Bryan Eshelman of AlixPartners in a Reuters interview.

"The fundamentals are just not adding up to a recovery," he adds.

Eshelman and others are bracing for a lackluster back-to-school season as consumers, spooked by grim economic data, still exercise caution while spending.

What’s the trade?

Citi analyst Deborah Weinswig cut her price targets on a slew of retail stocks ahead of same store sales.

In terms of the stocks mentioned above, she tells Fast Money, I’m concerned about Nordstrom. Not only do they have a higher income consumer that’s tied to the market but they’re also tied to discretionary.

Conversely, Kohl’s has a huge amount of cash on the balance sheets and they’re very disciplined from an inventory perspective, she says.

Find out what Weinswig has to say about Walmart . Watch the video above!




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Trader disclosure: On July 6, 2010, the following stocks and commodities mentioned or intended to be mentioned on CNBC’s Fast Money were owned by the Fast Money traders; Pete Najarian Owns (CRUS) Call Spreads; Pete Najarian owns (AKAM) call spreads; Pete Najarian owns (GNW); Seymour owns (AAPL), (BAC), (GOOG), (INTC), (POT); Kelly owns (BP) puts; Kelly owns (FCX) puts; Kelly owns (GLD); Kelly owns (GDXJ); Kelly is short (GS); Terranova owns (MON), (AGU), (KO), (XOM), (TEVA), (RDS.A), (GMCR), (UPL), (GS); Terranova owns (GLD) July 123 puts; Terranova owns (GS) JULY 130 CALLS; Terranova owns (GS) JULY 135 CALLS; Terranova is short gold

For Tim Seymour:
Seygem Owns (WBD)

For JoeTerranova
Terranova works for (VRTS)
Terranova is chief market strategist of Virtus Investment Partners, LTD.
Virtus Investment Partners owns more than 1% of (CASS)
Virtus Investment Partners owns more than 1% of (LDR)
Virtus Investment Partners owns more than 1% of (LPHI)
Virtus Investment Partners owns more than 1% of (MGRC)
Virtus Investment Partners owns more than 1% of (XLB)
Virtus Investment Partners owns more than 1% of (XLP)
Virtus Investment Partners owns more than 1% of (XLY)
Virtus Investment Partners owns more than 1% of (XLI)
Virtus Investment Partners owns more than 1% of (XLK)
Virtus Investment Partners owns more than 1% of (XLU)
Virtus Investment Partners owns more than 1% of (SUBK)
Virtus Investment Partners owns more than 1% of (WDFC)
Virtus Investment Partners owns more than 1% of (YDNT)
Virtus Investment Partners owns more than 1% of (DRYS)

For Anthony Scaramucci
Scaramucci and SkyBridge Capital own (BAC)
Scaramucci and SkyBridge Capital own (BP)
Scaramucci and SkyBridge Capital own (C)
Scaramucci and SkyBridge Capital own (GOOG)
Scaramucci and SkyBridge Capital own (GS)

For Brian Kelly
Accounts managed by Kanundrum Capital own (AUY)
Accounts managed by Kanundrum Capital own (GFI)
Accounts managed by Kanundrum Capital own Gold
Accounts managed by Kanundrum Capital own Treasuries
Accounts managed by Kanundrum Capital own US Dollars
Accounts managed by Kanundrum Capital is short (AMZN)
Accounts managed by Kanundrum Capital is short (RCL)
Accounts managed by Kanundrum Capital is short (XLY)
Accounts managed by Kanundrum Capital is short (XLE)
Accounts managed by Kanundrum Capital is short (AFL)
Accounts managed by Kanundrum Capital is short (CME)
Accounts managed by Kanundrum Capital is short (EWI)
Accounts managed by Kanundrum Capital is short (EWO)
Accounts managed by Kanundrum Capital is short (GS)
Accounts managed by Kanundrum Capital is short (HIG)
Accounts managed by Kanundrum Capital is short (RKH)
Accounts managed by Kanundrum Capital is short (XLF)
Accounts managed by Kanundrum Capital is short (XLI)
Accounts managed by Kanundrum Capital is short (FCX
Accounts managed by Kanundrum Capital is short (GFI)
Accounts managed by Kanundrum Capital is short (JOYG)
Accounts managed by Kanundrum Capital is short (XLB)
Accounts managed by Kanundrum Capital is short (XLK)
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Accounts managed by Kanundrum Capital is short (PCAR)
Accounts managed by Kanundrum Capital is short (COF)
Accounts managed by Kanundrum Capital is short (KMX)

Deborah Weinswig
Employees Of Citi Own (WMT), (JCP)
An Employee Of Citigroup Global Markets Or Affiliates Is A Trustee Of (TGT) Citigroup Global Markets Or Affiliates Owns 1% Or More Of (SKS) Citigroup Global Markets Or Affiliates Has Managed Or Co-Managed An Offering Of (DG), (KR), (WMT) In Past 12 Months Citigroup Global Markets Or Affiliates Has Received Investment Banking Compensation For Services Provided In Past 12 Months From (DG), (KR), (SKS), (SVU), (TGT), (WMT) Citigroup Global Markets Or Affiliates Expects To Receive/Seek Investment Banking Compensation From (WMT) In Next 3 Months Citigroup Global Markets Or Affiliate Received Non-Investment Banking Compensation From (HD), (JCP), (KSS), (KR), (M), (SWY), (SVU), (TGT), (WAG), (WMT), (COST) In Past 12 Months (DG), (KR), (SKS), (SVU), (TGT), (WMT) Are Or In Past 12 Months Were Investment Banking Clients Of Citigroup Global Markets (CVS), (DG), (HD), (JCP), (KSS), (KR), (M), (SWY), (SKS), (SVU), (TGT), (WAG), (WMT), (COST) Are Or In Past 12 Months Were Clients Of Citigroup Global Markets (Non-Investment Banking, Securities-Related Services) (HD), (JCP), (KSS), (KR), (M), (SWY), (SVU), (TGT), (WAG), (WMT), (COST) Are Or In Past 12 Months Were Clients Of Citigroup Global Markets (Non-Investment Banking, Non-Securities Related) Citigroup Global Markets Or Affiliate Received Compensation From (DG) In Past 12 Months Citigroup Global Markets Is A Market Maker In (CVS), (M), (COST) Citigroup Global Markets And/Or Affiliates Has A Significant Financial Interest In Relation To (HD), (JCP), (KR), (LOW), (M), (JWN), (SWY), (SVU), (TGT), (WMT), (COST) Citigroup Global Markets Or Affiliates Owns 5% Or More Of (SKS)

Doug Kass
**No Disclosures**

Mark Zandi

**No Disclosures**

David Riedel
**No Disclosures**

Scott Nations
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