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Strategist Hits Out at Rivals on Euro Calls

Wednesday, 14 Jul 2010 | 5:16 AM ET

It is tough being wrong in life, but even in our darkest hours there is a chance of things improving and you being proved right.

David Bloom is the global head of foreign exchange strategy at HSBC and earlier this year found himself going against the trend when the euro went into freefall. With other houses predicting parity for euro-dollar, Bloom refused to follow.

"We are predicting $1.35 for the end of this year and roughly the same for next year," Bloom told CNBC.

"We did trim it a bit because of the European crisis, but my view was that the dollar, things will turn, the dollar will come off a bit in the second half of the year," he said.

Other analysts predicted euro losses.

"We had some banks, I won't mention their names because it will cause me too much glee, who went from 1.55 to like 1.10, or parity," Bloom said.

Flip-Flopping

"I just don't get that at all, I can't see how you can flip a forecast like that. They have taken their parity hats, put them in the cupboard now and will pretend they never had those forecasts at all," Bloom added.

He came in for criticism when the euro was in freefall and is not shy of pointing the finger back at some of his rivals.

"I wouldn't be surprised if all those that were swung wildly by the market, with no integrity, just push their forecasts back up again. I suffered the pain, it's their turn now," Bloom said.

But surely views need to change as facts change?

"Facts change every day, markets go up and down. You have to have a fundamental belief and that is the belief that you have and you hold on to it" says Bloom.

Bloom once told CNBC he would eat his hat if sterling hit $2 versus the greenback - and did so when he got it wrong. Admittedly, it was a nice cake baked to look like a hat, but he stood by his call and publicly took the heat when he got it wrong.

"If it is wrong, you are wrong. You can't keep changing your view for whatever facts change that day and hope to have integrity at the end of the year, because what happens at the end of the year is that people don't even know what you are thinking anymore," he said.

"So if euro/dollar is at 1.35, I'll be right and if it's not, I'll be wrong. If the clock stops at 12 o'clock I'm your man," Bloom said.

Contact Europe: Economy

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