The Federal Reserve this week ratcheted downtheir outlook for economic growth and once again the headlines blared that this recovery is turning out to be rocky and uncertain.
Recent data underscores what should be obvious by now: that this recovery will be three steps forward and two steps back. Retail sales showed a surprising dropof 0.5% in June from May, a second month in a row, as consumers continued to pay off debts and rein back spending. Housing data also fell, with existing home sales for Maydipping 2.2% as banks keep huge number of foreclosed properties off the market waiting for more appealing prices in the future.
Farewell V shaped recovery it would seem.
Expectations are really the key in watching the pronouncements and assessments of so-called market experts. Anyone looking for a straight-line upward recovery trend from the latest economic numbers will indeed be surprised and somewhat disconcerted. If you are expecting an overwhelming avalanche of positive recovery news, then these latest data points are nothing short of troubling.
On the flip side, for economic commentators pronouncing a doomsday scenario, it is equally disconcerting to see positive data showing up on recent industrial production reports and stronger-than-expected corporate earnings.