European Bank Stress Tests Cheat Sheet
The results of EU stress tests on 91 banks are expected to be published Friday. Here is some country-by-country information on the banks:
Spain-Some Cajas (savings banks) expected to fail.
CNBC info: Sabadell CEO says he is "confident" about the stress tests. (Click for video interview)
REPORTS: El Pais reported that some cajas have failed the test.
WHAT ANALYSTS SAY: Analysts expect no problems at the big listed banks. They expect capital shortfalls at some cajas to be covered by the Bank of Spain's restructuring fund in a process that started before the stress tests were announced.
Portugal- 1-2 Fails possible
CNBC info: BPI are "relaxed" about the stress tests, according to the CEO. (Click for video interview)
WHAT ANALYSTS SAY: Millennium and Banco BPI have failed stress tests by brokers including JPMorgan, Macquarie and Keefe, Bruyette & Woods using different assumptions than CEBS.
Greece – Pass expected.
CNBC info: Chairman says National Bank of Greece (NBG) will pass the test. (Click for video interview)
WHAT ANALYSTS SAY: Citi analysts say NBG would need capital in their own stress test scenario. NBG, Piraeus, EFG, Marfin and Alpha Bank would need to raise capital in KBW's own, tougher stress test.
Germany - 1 Fail, 13 Passes expected
CNBC info: "All German banks tested should be fine, except one" a source told CNBC. Sources also said nationalized lender Hypo Real Estate (HRE) is likely to fail.
WHAT ANALYSTS SAY: Apart from HRE, some analysts using different stress test assumptions have said Commerzbank and Deutsche Post Bank would need more capital in their scenario. Regional banks – Landesbanken – are also seen at risk.
France – Pass expected
WHAT ANALYSTS SAY: Most expect all banks to pass. Some brokers using a harsher stress test than CEBS have cast doubt on Credit Agricole's capital strength.
Ireland- 1 Pass, 1 conditional Pass expected
OFFICIAL COMMENTS: Finance Minister Brian Lenihan and central bank Governor Patrick Honohan both said that the two Irish banks had already passed domestic stress tests that were tougher than the EU test.
WHAT ANALYSTS SAY: Bank of Ireland would need to raise capital under KBW's harsher test.
UK– Pass expected
OFFICIAL COMMENTS: George Osborne said UK banks would not need any government help to shore up their financial position after the tests. Banks were recapitalized after stress tests in 2008 and 2009, and the testing is now ongoing.
WHAT ANALYSTS SAY: Lloyds Banking Group would need to raise capital on assumptions of a 40 percent markdown on Greek debt and more severe assumptions of loan loss charges, according to Macquarie Research.
Italy - Pass expected
OFFICIAL COMMENTS: Bank of Italy Governor Mario Draghi said last week he was confident stress tests would show individual banks' capital is strong enough and that financial bases are sound.
WHAT ANALYSTS SAY: Monte Dei Paschi Di Siena would need to raise capital under KBW's stress test.
Austria - Pass expected
OFFICIAL COMMENTS: Austrian central bank Governor Ewald Nowotny said the Austrian banks' results would be "in a normal range" and that he did not expect the test to show any capital requirements. Also, Erste bank CEO told reporters that he is "confident" the bank would pass.
Belgium - Pass expected
WHAT ANALYSTS SAY: Analysts tell CNBC the Benelux region have already done and published stress tests results last year and their banks didn't need recap back then, so it's very unlikely they'll need it now. Citi analysts say Dexia screens poorly in their own stress test scenario, while KBC would need to raise capital by 2012.
Netherlands - Pass expected
OFFICIAL COMMENTS: Dutch Finance Minister de Jager said he was confident about the outcome the stress tests and a test last year showed no banks needed money, except for ABN/Fortis, which later received capital.
Poland– Pass expected
CNBC info: Polish central bank governor Marek Belka said the only Polish bank to be tested, PKO, is solid and a distinction must be made between Polish banks and foreign banks with Polish branches.
Slovenia – Pass expected
OFFICIAL COMMENTS: Prime Minister Borut Pahor said Slovenia will guarantee the stability of its banks if necessary. NBL, which is unlisted, is the only bank that will take part in the stress test. NBL announced Wednesday it plans to raise capital by 400 million euros in 2010 to meet stricter EU capital rules.
Sweden – Pass expected
OFFICIAL COMMENTS: The chief economist at Sweden's financial watchdog has said that the country's top four banks will come out looking good in the EU stress tests.
Denmark - Pass expected
REPORTS: The three banks tested – Danske Bank, Jysk Bank and Sydbank – are expected to pass, daily paper Politiken wrote, citing a finance ministry source.
- Reuters contributed to this report.