2011 Starts Next Week?
Web Editor, "Mad Money"
The first Monday in August might as well be New Year’s Day, Cramer said during Thursday’s Mad Money. Because as soon as the calendar page turns, money managers will stop thinking about 2010 and focus largely on next year. And that should be good news for stocks.
- Cramer's Top 6 Comeback Stocks for 2010
“Come January 2011, aka Aug. 2,” Cramer said, “when we switch calendars, hope springs eternal.”
Money managers by that point will assume this year is in the books. So we’ll hear much less, if anything, about what companies will make in 2010. The only thing that will really matter is earnings projections for 2011, which should make many stocks right now look cheap.
Now, this doesn’t mean we won’t see the kind of seesaw action that hit the market today. Nor will it exactly save tech, at least not right away, from the driving force that’s hurting much of that sector, namely that anything not related to Apple is being sold. Not to mention that August is a notoriously bad month for tech stocks.
Where the calendar shift will take effect, though, is in a company like Boeing . The company suffered a mere wrist slap after reporting a disappointing quarter on Wednesday exactly because money managers know next year will bring much better earnings. And because next year starts on Monday in their world, Cramer said he wouldn’t be surprised if analyst started raising 2011 earnings estimates right away.
“That, and not some larger force affecting this whole market, is what caused Boeing to stop going down on its missed quarter,” Cramer said. “The portfolio managers know that 2011 is lurking and is around the corner. They don’t want to miss it. Mark my words, every time this Boeing stock gets hit from now until 2011, I think buyers will cushion the fall because of this calendar-shift factor.”
Going back to tech, Cramer thinks this “New Year” outlook could help those stocks not directly related to Apple. With 2011 on the mind, analysts will expect the aftermath of this year’s holiday season, which he called the true 2011 barometer, to be quite positive because tech is bought worldwide, not just in the US. And the rest of the world has been doing much better than we are.
So do you hold onto your tech stocks knowing there’s still more pain ahead? Well, that depends. If your portfolio is too tech heavy, then no. Cash out and look elsewhere for investments. But if you’re smartly diversified, as Cramer always suggests, then, yes, do hold on.
“I say the cavalry of 2011 is just around the corner,” Cramer said. “So if you can take a little more pain, 2011 I think will create some serious gains.”
When this story published, Cramer’s charitable trust owned Apple and Boeing.
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