Kaminsky's Call: Eyeing Equilibrium, Supply and Demand
Morgan Stanley, Vice Chairman
The equilibrium in the supply and demand of the markets that we have grown accustomed to has changed dramatically due to, "the lost decade."
These past ten years have altered strategic capabilities. The days of the younger generation providing demand to the older set's supply have evaporated.
On the show yesterday, my co-host for the week, Becky Quick, and I took a look at a surprising survey conducted by Merrill Lynch. Fifty-two percent of investors aged 18-34 expressed an aversion to owning stocks.
Now, this does not make me bearish. I still maintain that a continued "melt-up" is plausible.
Stocks can still go up, but with both young and old grabbing corporate bonds, yields can stay at the low levels we saw last month (and in IBM's sale this week).
My "Call-to-Action" today: every now and then, the time is right for higher-level observations.
The equilibrium between stocks and bonds has been broken. There is no "bond bubble."
There are children of the baby boom generation who will not purchase stocks like their parents did, and that is quite an important development to monitor.
I take a long, hard look at the supply and demand of the markets in my new book, Smarter Than The Street (to be released in November by McGraw Hill).
- A "Melt-Up" in Stocks by End of 2011
- Video: Lost Generation of Investing
Programming note: "The Strategy Session," hosted by David Faber and Gary Kaminsky, airs weekdays at Noon ET on CNBC.
Gary Kaminsky does not hold any equity positions.
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