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NetNet With John Carney

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  Tuesday, 14 May 2013 | 12:12 PM ET

This Bullish Indicator at 58-Year High

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Getty Images

Stocks have a little extra bragging room now over bonds: an earnings yield on the Standard & Poor's 500 that has just hit a 58-year high.

While the 5.4 percent earnings yield—the inverse of the price-to-earnings ratio—is still considerably below its historical average, the number is nearly triple the 1.9 percent yield of the 10-year Treasury note.

Investors use the yields generally and this ratio in particular to determine how much reward they are getting for their risk. A low S&P 500 earnings yield, then, would suggest a market that is at or approaching expensive levels.

(Read More: As Stocks Rally, Market Flooded With New Shares)

A high yield ratio, on the other hand, points to a reasonably priced stock market—a higher yield needed to lure more investors—and markets that have approached the current levels do well.

In the past, whenever the earnings per share yield doubled the Treasury yield, the market averaged a 12 percent gain over the next year, with gains coming 71 percent of the time, according to S&P Capital IQ. The average ratio post-World War II is 1.6 times, versus the current 2.8.

»Read more
  Tuesday, 14 May 2013 | 7:25 AM ET

Amid Rally, Market Flooded With Shares

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Getty Images

The strong stock market rally this year is being met with a heightened level of supply, setting up a big bet that retail investors will keep buying what Wall Street is selling.

In the past, that's been a risky wager, with too much supply depressing market prices.

But with the market on its longest streak in more than six years without at least a 5 percent pullback, suppliers are figuring there are many more willing to step in.

»Read more
  Tuesday, 14 May 2013 | 7:01 AM ET

How Canadian Housing Bubble May Hit Its Big Banks

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Brent Lewin | Bloomberg | Getty Images
The Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce in Toronto.

Dan Werner of Morningstar has a report on the likely consequences for Canadian banks of a housing bubble bursting there.

He concludes that their financial health is substantially worse than conventional wisdom would have it.

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  Monday, 13 May 2013 | 12:53 PM ET

Can Street Live Without Bloomberg?

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Source: MBA.Missouri.edu
The Bloomberg Terminal computer system

Even if trading firms aren't likely to dump their Bloomberg terminals anytime soon, Wall Street pros say the firm still faces long-term damage to its brand credibility from its privacy breach scandal.

Market participants rely on the firm's ubiquitous data centers for charts, economic reports and a host of other information. Though there are competitors out there, none matches the voluminous bits of intelligence the Bloomberg terminals offer.

The integrity of those machines, though, has been called into question following disclosure that for decades Bloomberg reporters have had access to certain information in clients' accounts.

(Read More: Bloomberg Reporters Admit to Terminal Snooping)

So even if it's unlikely that there will be cartloads of the machines rolling out of Wall Street offices anytime soon, that doesn't mean the firm doesn't have a big problem on its hands.

»Read more
  Monday, 13 May 2013 | 7:02 AM ET

Is the Canadian Housing Market Falling Apart?

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Solidago | E+ | Getty Images
Granville Island, Vancouver, Canada

Last summer, a Vancouver real estate agent named Keith Roy sold his house. About a month later, he wrote a blog post about it—and set off a firestorm of criticism from fellow real estate agents.

"I'm a REALTOR and I sold my own home 4 weeks ago. It wasn't too big or too small. It's only 6 years old and still feels new. I sold because in 6 months my home will be worth less than it is today. I think it's time to cash out," Roy said.

His argument was really simple. The supply of homes on the market was outstripping demand from buyers. Excessive supply and falling demand would lead prices downward.

But his fellow brokers felt betrayed. Some even complained that Roy had been disrespectful to the profession.

Selling his home was, however, a prescient move.

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  Friday, 10 May 2013 | 1:38 AM ET

Canada's Housing Market: The Next Big Short?

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Brent Lewin | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Condo's under construction in Toronto, Ontario as Canada's housing market begins to slow.

Steve Eisman, the hedge fund manager who famously bet against mortgages in the United States in the run up to the 2008 financial crash, has recommended investors now bet against Canada's mortgage lenders and banks.

Eisman, founder and portfolio manager of hedge fund Emrys Partners, rose to prominence with subprime mortgage bets that were chronicled by Michael Lewis in the book "Big Short".

Eisman is wary of Canadian mortgage originator Home Capital Group in particular, according to Reuters. And investors may have taken his advice; the stock is down 4 percent since Wednesday.

(Read More: Carney Sets High Bar to Bank of England Changes)

"If housing rolls over, this company is going to have serious problems," Reuters cited him as saying at the Sohn Investment Conference. The news agency said he added that the housing market is troubled and estimated the domestic funding gap for the six big Canadian banks at roughly $427 billion.

House prices in Canada have doubled in the last ten years, according to the Teranet-National Bank Composite House Price Index. The surge in the index, which measures price changes for repeat sales of single-family homes, has stuttered this year falling back by 0.09 percent in what some believe is a cooling off period.

This year's figures show a long slow winter of decline following the government's move to tighten mortgage lending rules. In July 2012, Finance Minister Jim Flaherty unveiled major changes to the limits of what state-owned Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) is allowed to insure.

Last year, outgoing governor of the Bank of Canada Mark Carney added his weight to the debate by warning on numerous occasions of elevated household debt levels which represented a significant threat to the financial system.

Fears remain that Canadians aren't listening as the ratio of credit market debt (such as mortgages) to disposable income continues to rise, according to Statistics Canada, reaching 165.0 percent in the last quarter, compared with 164.7 percent in the previous.

»Read more
  Friday, 10 May 2013 | 12:18 PM ET

Zell on Market: A 'Giant Game of Musical Chairs'

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Scott Eells | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Sam Zell

Sam Zell looks at the stock market and doesn't like what he sees: Surging equity prices that have come without corresponding economic growth.

Like many of the investing veterans gathered at the SkyBridge Alternatives conference in Las Vegas this week, Zell is a skeptic about the surge but unwilling to predict when it might end.

He only knows that when it does end, it won't be pretty.

»Read more
  Thursday, 9 May 2013 | 9:05 PM ET

Dan Loeb Sees a 'Huge Game Change' in Japan

Posted By:
Jacob Kepler | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Dan Loeb

Aggressive fiscal and monetary policy coupled with structural reforms are presenting huge investment opportunities in Japan, widely followed hedge fund manager Dan Loeb said.

Speaking at the Skybridge Alternatives, or SALT, conference in Las Vegas, the founder and CEO of Third Point, with $13 billion under management, said the slow-moving Japanese economy is ready for a breakout.

"We're really focused on Japan," he said.

»Read more
  Thursday, 9 May 2013 | 1:21 PM ET

Karl Rove to Barney Frank: You Killed Small Banks

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Getty Images
Christopher Dodd and Barney Frank

Former Rep. Barney Frank, co-author of the massive regulation effort that sought to contain too-big-to-fail banks, said the legislation is working even if some people don't like it.

Republican political operative Karl Rove said the main effect of the Dodd-Frank financial reform law is that it has hammered community banks.

»Read more
  Wednesday, 8 May 2013 | 2:19 PM ET

'Bear Market Checklist' Goes a Perfect 0-for-6

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Joerg Koch | AFP | Getty Images

David Darst has six boxes on his bear market checklist, and none of them are filled in yet.

The Morgan Stanley chief investment strategist is a realist—cautious but not cowering, optimistic but not overzealous.

So when he looks at the current bull market, he certainly sees danger that conditions could change, particularly in the case of policy mistakes.

But the current trajectory is higher.

(Read More: Sell in May, Go Away? Not This Year, Say Traders)

»Read more

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