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Top Traders: Key Market 'Tell' Signals Turn?

Friday, 27 Aug 2010 | 5:48 PM ET

With the S&P closing solidly higher on Friday and the Dow surging by triple digits, are bulls back in the driver's seat?

That’s the question investors struggled with as they looked for new clues that might suggest the market’s direction.

And the answer may come from Intel. The tech titan closed higher on lower guidance. (Intel cut its forecast on weaker-than-expected demand for personal computers.)

Strategic investor Doug Kass of Seabreeze tells us the action in Intel is a “huge and positive tell. Remember it's how stocks react to negative news that is more important than the news itself,” he says.

And Intel is not the only stock fighting higher in the face of bad news. Despite a double whammy of dismal existing and new home sales data the homebuilders closed up on the week.

How should you position now?

Word on the Street
The Fast Money traders take a look at today's top business stories.

Instant Insights with the Fast Money traders

I think the turn comes after Labor Day, muses Jon Najarian. But I’m already seeing investors jump into stocks sitting at 52-week lows in anticipation of the turn, he says. I think the smart money comes back into the market after Labor Day and drives stocks higher.

From here, downside should be relatively limited, says Joe Terranova. Technology turned on Friday and I think tech will be the leader as we move into the fall. Also we saw a significant amount of money come out of Treasurys. And I found Bernanke’s comments bullish – he didn’t downgrade his outlook on the economy. If you’re looking for a trade I’d step into chip names such as Marvel or Broadcom.

The economy is probably not as bad as market sentiment would lead investors to believe, adds Zach Karabell. However, I’m focussed on the post-Labor Day period. We can’t know what’s really happening until volume returns to the market and that probably won't happen for another week.

* We've got even more market insights. Get the latest from Pete Boockvar of Miller Tabak. Watch the video now!

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CLOUD PLAYS SURGE ON H-P VS DELL BIDDING WAR

Cloud plays surged on Friday as investors bet on the potential for further acquisitions after Hewlett-Packard raised its offer for 3PAR to $2 billion, once again topping Dell’s bid and showing it had plenty of ammunition in the bidding war for the data storage company.

HP's offer of $30 per share came less than 3 hours after Dell announced 3PAR had accepted its bid of $27 per share, which matched HP's previous offer.

Dell's agreement with 3PAR allows it to match competing bids, but analysts say HP may be the stronger player with $115 billion in annual revenue compared with Dell's $53 billion.

Since August 16
Compellent (CML) +40%
Commvault (CVLT) +31%
Isilon (ISLN) +22%
Netezza (NZ) +37%

What’s the trade?

The stocks listed above are only trading at about 40% the current valuation of 3Par but I wouldn’t put that valuation onto these names, explains Zach Karabell. 3Par is clearly the belle of the ball.

If you’re looking for a tech trade I’d look at IBM, counsels Joe Terranova.



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Trader disclosure: On August 27th, 2010, the following stocks and commodities mentioned or intended to be mentioned on CNBC’s Fast Money were owned by the Fast Money traders; Terranova Owns (AXP), (GS), (IBM), (QCOM), (AAPL), (GOOG), (BRCM), (TER), (MSFT), (C), (MRVL), (BMO), (V), (POT), (OXY), (GLD), (SU), (FCX), (APA), (XBI); Jon Najarian owns (BAC), short calls; Jon Najarian owns (LNC), short calls; Jon Najarian owns (SNDK), short calls; Jon Najarian owns (STX), call spreads; Jon Najarian owns (X), short calls; Karabell owns (AAPL); (CSCO), (FCX), (GS), (POT), (RIMM); Boockvar owns (GLD), (SLV), (XOM), (NEM), (MOS)

For Joe Terranova
Terranova is chief market strategist of Virtus Investment Partners, LTD.
Virtus Investment Partners own more than 1% of (ABAX)
Virtus Investment Partners own more than 1% of (ALK)
Virtus Investment Partners own more than 1% of (AMKR)
Virtus Investment Partners own more than 1% of (CASS)
Virtus Investment Partners own more than 1% of (CSVI)
Virtus Investment Partners own more than 1% of (XLY)
Virtus Investment Partners own more than 1% of (XLP)
Virtus Investment Partners own more than 1% of (DRYS)
Virtus Investment Partners own more than 1% of (EXR)
Virtus Investment Partners own more than 1% of (XLI)
Virtus Investment Partners own more than 1% of (IGE)
Virtus Investment Partners own more than 1% of (LDR)
Virtus Investment Partners own more than 1% of (LPHI)
Virtus Investment Partners own more than 1% of (XLB)
Virtus Investment Partners own more than 1% of (MGRC)
Virtus Investment Partners own more than 1% of (NRCI)
Virtus Investment Partners own more than 1% of (DBV)
Virtus Investment Partners own more than 1% of (SUBK)
Virtus Investment Partners own more than 1% of (XLK)
Virtus Investment Partners own more than 1% of (XLU)
Virtus Investment Partners own more than 1% of (WDFC)
Virtus Investment Partners own more than 1% of (YDNT)

For Zach Karabell
River Twice own (CSCO)
River Twice own (GS)
River Twice own (POT)

For Mike Khouw
Cantor Fitzgerald makes a market in (AAPL)
Cantor Fitzgerald makes a market in (ADM)
Cantor Fitzgerald makes a market in (AKAM)
Cantor Fitzgerald makes a market in (AMZN)
Cantor Fitzgerald makes a market in (BAC)
Cantor Fitzgerald makes a market in (BKC)
Cantor Fitzgerald makes a market in (CHK)
Cantor Fitzgerald makes a market in (CML)
Cantor Fitzgerald makes a market in (CSCO)
Cantor Fitzgerald makes a market in (CVLT)
Cantor Fitzgerald makes a market in (DELL)
Cantor Fitzgerald makes a market in (FCX)
Cantor Fitzgerald makes a market in (GS)
Cantor Fitzgerald makes a market in (INTC)
Cantor Fitzgerald makes a market in (ISLN)
Cantor Fitzgerald makes a market in (JOYG)
Cantor Fitzgerald makes a market in (KBH)
Cantor Fitzgerald makes a market in (LEN)
Cantor Fitzgerald makes a market in (LNC)
Cantor Fitzgerald makes a market in (MSFT)
Cantor Fitzgerald makes a market in (NEM)
Cantor Fitzgerald makes a market in (NZ)
Cantor Fitzgerald makes a market in (PAR)
Cantor Fitzgerald makes a market in (POT)
Cantor Fitzgerald makes a market in (RIMM)|
Cantor Fitzgerald makes a market in (SCHW)
Cantor Fitzgerald makes a market in (SLV)
Cantor Fitzgerald makes a market in (SNDK)
Cantor Fitzgerald makes a market in (STX)

For Colin Gillis
***No Disclosures***

For Michael Block
***No Disclosures***


CNBC.com and wires

  Price   Change %Change
DJIA
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S&P 500
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BRCM
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4331
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HPQ
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IBM
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INTC
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MRVL
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PAR
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SPDR SP HB
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SPDR TEC SEL
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  • Chief Market Strategist for Virtus Investment Partners & CNBC Contributor

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