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Halftime: Hedgie Whitney Tilson Lays Odds of US Lost Decade

If you think investor appetite for bonds is a sign we're looking at a lost decade in the US, one value investor said think again.

Whitney Tilson, founder and managing partner of T2 Partners, said the odds of a "10 year of a Japanese-style, deflationary environment," are less than 5 percent.

Tilson is astounded that so many investors are putting money into 10-year bonds, both corporate and government, instead of investing in blue chip stocks.

"It is 95 percent likely that if you're going to own something for 10 years, you will do massively better owning a stock," he said on the "Fast Money Halftime Report."

Tilson uses Johnson & Johnson as an example. He's very confident that dividends combined with gains in J&J share price will more than outweigh returns bond investors will get from a Johnson & Johnson 10-year bond that yields 2.59 percent.

And it's not only Johnson & Johnson that Tilson recommends. Ahead of the program, he told our producers that instead of corporate bonds, he prefers long positions in other blue chip dividend paying stocks, including; Budweiser , Kraft and Microsoft as well.

Watch the video to see the full conversation with Tilson.

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UNUSUAL ACTIVITY: AKAMAI TECHNOLOGIES

By midday trading Thursday, there were 16,000 calls for Akamai Technologies , which options trader Jon Najarian said is unusual because the average amount is just 100 an hour.

"So something's going on in Akamai," said Najarian, co-founder of optionMONSTER.com. "The stock is pushing back through 52, so that's a very positive sign."

Najarian called AKAM a "hot stock" thanks, in part, to the "explosion" of online content. The Cambridge, Mass.-based company, of course, provides services for accelerating and improving the delivery of such content.

Elsewhere in the technology space, Najarian said there are a lot of rumors about who might takeover Blue Coat Systems , which is based in Sunnyvale, Calif. By midday trading Thursday, the tech name saw roughly 14,000 options trade hands.

"I do like the activity in the calls," he said. "It does move nicely to the upside from here, I think."

CNBC called Akamai and Blue Coat Thursday, but both companies had no comment.

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CALL TO THE FLOOR: ROSETTA STONE

Rosetta Stone, maker of language learning technology, sees Japan as its next big growth market, according to CEO Tom P. H. Adams.

Japan is our largest market that we're addressing, said Adams, adding that it's twice the size of the US in terms of money spent on language training. The Arlington, Va.-based company is preparing new products to launch in Japan next year. International markets now make up 12 percent of revenues for the company, which is up from 5 percent in 2009.

While some Wall Street analysts said there is limited visibility for revenues because not enough of its revenue stream is through subscription, Adams said 70 percent of its institutional revenues is subscription-based. According to a "Fast" producer, that's 21 percent of Rosetta Stone's total revenue. The company is working on improving the number, but Adams refused to give a target. He did tell CNBC's Melissa Lee, however, that much of the company's focus is getting more product online.

Watch the video to see the full interview with Adams.

Editor's Note: A previous version of this story misstated the portion of Rosetta Stone's revenues recieved from subscription-based services.

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Trader disclosure: On Sept. 16th, 2010, the following stocks and commodities mentioned or intended to be mentioned on CNBC’s Fast Money were owned by the Fast Money traders; Adami owns (AGU), (BTU), (NUE), (C), (GS), (INTC), (MSFT); Adami’s wife works at Merck; Jon Najarian owns (RIMM) short calls; Jon Najarian owns (ORCL) short calls; Jon Najarian owns (TBT) short calls; Jon Najarian owns (F) short calls; Jon Najarian owns (AKAM) short calls; Jon Najarian owns (BCSI) short calls; Grasso owns (ASTM), (BA), (BAC), (C), (CSCO), (JPM), (LPX), (MO), (MOT), (NDAQ), (PFE), (PRST); Cortes is short (XLF); Cortes is short (XRT); Cortes is short Crude Oil; Cortes is short the British Pound; Cortes is long U.S. Treasuries; Cortes owns (RIMM)

For Steve Grasso:
Stuart Frankel & Co and it’s partners own (BAX)
Stuart Frankel & Co and it’s partners own (COG)
Stuart Frankel & Co and it’s partners own (CUBA)
Stuart Frankel & Co and it’s partners own (DHR)
Stuart Frankel & Co and it’s partners own (GERN)
Stuart Frankel & Co and it’s partners own (HPQ)
Stuart Frankel & Co and it’s partners own (HSPO)
Stuart Frankel & Co and it’s partners own (MERC)
Stuart Frankel & Co and it’s partners own (NWS.A)
Stuart Frankel & Co and it’s partners own (NYX)
Stuart Frankel & Co and it’s partners own (PDE)
Stuart Frankel & Co and it’s partners own (PFE)
Stuart Frankel & Co and it’s partners own (PRST)
Stuart Frankel & Co and it’s partners own (RDC)
Stuart Frankel & Co and it’s partners own (TLM)
Stuart Frankel & Co and it’s partners own (TRV)
Stuart Frankel & Co and it’s partners own (XRX)
Stuart Frankel & Co and it’s partners own (SDS)
Stuart Frankel & Co and it’s partners are short (QQQQ)

For Whitney Tilson
Funds Managed By Tilson Own (BUD), (JNJ), (KFT), (MSFT)
Funds Managed By Tilson Are Short (IOC), (BKS), (CRM), (NFLX), (LULU)

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