Tim Geithner will probably be tossed out of the Obama administration following the midterm elections.
The Treasury Secretary has managed to hold onto his job for much longer than many political observers expected.
He's now outlasted many other economic advisers to the president, including Peter Orzsag, Herb Allison, Steve Rattner, Larry Summers and Christina Romer. Insiders say the role he played in getting Congress to pass the financial reform bill has significantly strengthened his position in the administration.
But none of that will matter after election day. If the Democrats fare poorly at the polls, losing either the Senate or the House, the Obama administration's handling of the economy will be blamed. No other issue matters as much to voters right now.
Geithner will be the official fall guy for the November losses. The Obama administration will have to show the party faithful that it is making changes to respond to the electoral defeat. Firing Geithner will be at the top of the list of those changes.