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Has Wave Of GOP Momentum Crested?

If you’re banking on a GOP landslide this mid-term, you might not like these developments very much.

After enduring months of bad news and gloomy political forecasts, signs are emerging that Republican gains in the November 2 congressional elections will not be as big as predicted.

A modest boost in the Dem's national poll numbers and an upturn for Democratic candidates in a few key states, particularly California and Washington, have fueled Democratic hopes that a yearlong Republican wave of momentum may have crested.

Several recent opinion polls also show a slight erosion in the huge Republican edge as President Barack Obama turns up his attacks on Republican economic policies while core Democrats begin to engage in the campaign.

The shifts offer Democrats a flicker of hope that a long-predicted Republican congressional landslide might not be big enough for Republicans to claim a majority in the U.S. House of Representatives or Senate.

However, before you re-position your portfolio it also worth noting the movement could be a natural tightening in the final weeks of a fierce campaign. Afterall, little has changed in the overall political atmosphere. Voters are still deeply unhappy about the economy and Obama's approval ratings are still stuck in the mid-40s.

"We saw a crest for Republicans in late August and early September when Democrats were at their absolute nadir," said Ipsos Public Affairs pollster Chris Jackson. "Now it's shifting to a more natural situation where Republicans make gains but maybe not the overwhelming wave forecast a month ago."

Democrats have struggled against a political headwind all year, with voters in a foul mood over persistent high unemployment, a growing budget deficit and the perceived failures of government in Washington.

The deteriorating political climate has put Democrats on the defensive in dozens of once-safe House and Senate seats and sparked widespread predictions that Republicans would pick up the 39 House seats and perhaps even the 10 Senate seats they need to take control of Congress and block Obama's agenda.

"The key for the Democrats in the final month is to do two things -- win the economic argument and turn out their voters," said Simon Rosenberg, head of the Democratic advocacy group NDN. "If they do that, they will end up in a better place on Election Day than anybody would have thought two months ago."

Hear more about the mid-term elections from FBR policy analyst Ed Mills. Watch the video above.




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Pablo Perez-Fernandez
***No Disclosures***

Ed Mills
***No Disclosures***

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