Yikes… what a difference from two years ago.
While polls… which show the Democrats taking a drubbing today on the Federal and State level… can be wrong, auction markets rarely are. That is to say, polls and auctions are somewhat similar: they are both designed to predict the outcome of an event – be it what the value of crude oil will be one month hence, the result of last night’s World Series game or who will control the U.S. Congress in January.
However, there is one crucial difference.
A poll is based on the mood of the public at a frozen moment in time. Thus, while the Democrats’ base (read: sycophants of the Daily Show) might seemingly be frustrated with this White House at present… hence Obama’s lousy approval rating… numerous reasons exist why a significant number of Democrats would rather stick a pin in their eye than vote Republican.
Politically, today is the mirror image of 2006. Then, Democrats surged (justly) as a result of Republican incompetence. After all, you do not get a Jimmy Carter without a Richard Nixon and you cannot get an Obama without a Dubya.