Ritholtz: Does Barack Obama Have George H. W. Bush Senior Syndrome?
Damn, those Republicans work fast — the jobs situation is already improving!
In all seriousness, I am not (yet) willing to bet, based on a single recent data point, that the employment situation has turned around.
However, the data point does raise a fascinating question: Does Barack Obama have George Bush Senior Syndrome?
A brief refresher: Following a recession, George H.W. Bush lost a 3 way 1992 election that included Ross Perot, and swept Bill Clinton into the White House. Clinton “felt your economic pain,” while James Carville drilled into anyone who would listen that “Its the Economy, Stupid.”
Yet, the reality was, that economy had already come out of recession and was improving prior to the November election. It just didn’t feel that way to the electorate, composed as it was of humans, and their sticky wetware that looks backwards, not forwards, when it comes to sentiment.
Bush senior was a one term President, with the country failing to recognize the improving economic. In some ways, Obama has the more fortuitous timing — he still has two years before the Presidential race.
But following Friday’s NFP (Non-farm payroll) report, we cannot help but wonder: How big an impact was luck by a mere few months in the Mid-Term elections? We won’t find out for a quarter or two, but its a fascinating question . . .
Barry Ritholtz is CEO, Director of Equity Research for Fusion IQ. He is the author of Bailout Nation: How Greed and Easy Money Corrupted Wall Street and Shook the World Economy, and runs the blog, The Big Picture. This article was reprinted from The Big Picture.