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4 Retail Trades Ahead of Same-Store Sales

Wednesday, 3 Nov 2010 | 6:25 PM ET

US retailers are poised to report their weakest monthly sales gains in six months as as the warmest October weather in decades and a still-stumbling economic recovery crimped demand for fall merchandise.

Analysts expect same-store sales to have risen 1.6 percent in October, compared with a 1.8 percent increase last year, according to Thomson Reuters data. October, said Citigroup analyst Deborah Weinswig, was rather warm.

Take Your Position
Why October retail sales will move markets tomorrow, with Deborah Weinswig, Citi analyst.

"The issue is that we probably thought inventories would build at the end of the month. There's probably a lot of outer wear that's going to be discounted and the issue is November will be nice and cold, so consumers will probably looking for the heavier jackets and that will probably be what sells," she explained.

Retail chains from Target to J.C. Penney and Abercrombie & Fitch will report sales at stores open at least year — a closely watched industry gauge known as same-store sales — on Wednesday and Thursday.

Consumers, bombarded with a daily dose of mixed economic data, may have chosen to pause from shopping ahead of the holidays, after being enticed by big discounts in the back-to-school season, analysts said.

Heading into November, Weinswig thinks names like Target, Macy's, Nordstrom or Whole Foods are great calls. From a consumer perspective, she said the action is in these kind of "aspirational, fashion-forward" brands.

Pete Najarian, co-founder of optionMONSTER.com, likes Target because it sells a variety of products and appeals to both the affluent and everyday customer.

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Trader disclosure: On November 3, 2010, the following stocks and commodities mentioned or intended to be mentioned on CNBC’s "Fast Money" were owned by the "Fast Money" traders; Pete Najarian owns (BAC), (LVS), (MS) and (NTRS). Adami owns (AGU), (BTU), (NUE), (C), (GS), (INTC) and (MSFT). Cortes is short crude oil, gold, (AAPL) and (RSX). Cortes is long S&P 500. Cortes owns (GOOG), (K), (TSN) (CLX) and US Treasurys. Joe Terranova owns (APA), (AAPL), (AXP), (C), (GOOG), (GS), (FCX), (HES), (IBM), (MCD), (NKE), (ORCL), (PCP), (PEP), (UPL), (VRTS) and (XBI).

For Guy Adami:
Adami’s wife works at Merck

For Brian Kelly:
Accounts managed by Kanundrum Capital own (GLD)
Accounts managed by Kanundrum Capital own (GDXJ)
Accounts managed by Kanundrum Capital own (TLT)
Accounts managed by Kanundrum Capital own (TIP)
Accounts managed by Kanundrum Capital own (SLV)
Accounts managed by Kanundrum Capital own (CLF)
Accounts managed by Kanundrum Capital own (ANDE)
Accounts managed by Kanundrum Capital own (GPRE)
Accounts managed by Kanundrum Capital own (JJG)
Accounts managed by Kanundrum Capital own (HD)
Accounts managed by Kanundrum Capital own (PCL)
Accounts managed by Kanundrum Capital own (XHB)
Accounts managed by Kanundrum Capital own (FCX)
Accounts managed by Kanundrum Capital own (EWH)
Accounts managed by Kanundrum Capital own (CLF)
Accounts managed by Kanundrum Capital own Euros
Accounts managed by Kanundrum Capital are short Japanese Yen

For Joe Terranova:
Terranova is chief market strategist of Virtus Investment Partners, LTD.
Virtus Investment Partners own more than 1% of (ABAX)
Virtus Investment Partners own more than 1% of (ALK)
Virtus Investment Partners own more than 1% of (AMKR)
Virtus Investment Partners own more than 1% of (CASS)
Virtus Investment Partners own more than 1% of (CMS)
Virtus Investment Partners own more than 1% of (CSC)
Virtus Investment Partners own more than 1% of (CSVI)
Virtus Investment Partners own more than 1% of (FCFS)
Virtus Investment Partners own more than 1% of (IGE)
Virtus Investment Partners own more than 1% of (LDR)
Virtus Investment Partners own more than 1% of (LPHI)
Virtus Investment Partners own more than 1% of (MGRC)
Virtus Investment Partners own more than 1% of (NRCI)
Virtus Investment Partners own more than 1% of (DBV)
Virtus Investment Partners own more than 1% of (XLB)
Virtus Investment Partners own more than 1% of (XLP)
Virtus Investment Partners own more than 1% of (XLY)
Virtus Investment Partners own more than 1% of (XLF)
Virtus Investment Partners own more than 1% of (XLI)
Virtus Investment Partners own more than 1% of (XLU)
Virtus Investment Partners own more than 1% of (SOA)
Virtus Investment Partners own more than 1% of (SUBK)
Virtus Investment Partners own more than 1% of (WDFC)
Virtus Investment Partners own more than 1% of (WMB)
Virtus Investment Partners own more than 1% of (YDNT)
Virtus Investment Partners own more than 1% of (DRYS)

RICHARD VOLPE
RBS makes a market in U.S. Treasuries

JEFFERY HARTE
Sandler O'Neill has received compensation from (BAC), (C), (JPM) for investment banking services in the past 12 months.
Sandler O'Neill intends to seek compensation from (BAC), (C), (JEF), (JPM) for investment banking services in the next 3 months.
Sandler O'Neill has received compensation from (BAC), (C) (JPM), (MS) for providing products or services other than investment banking services in the last 12-months.
(BAC), (C), (MS) is a client of and receives non-investment banking securities-related services from Sandler O'Neill

PETER BOOCKVAR
***No Disclosures***

DEBORAH WEINSWIG
Citigroup owns 1% of (SKS), (SVU)
Within the past 12 months, Citigroup has managed an offering of (TGT), (WMT), (HD)
Citigroup has received compensation for investment banking services provided within the past 12 months from (TGT), (WMT), (SKS), (HD), (KR)
Citigroup intends to seek, within the next 3 months, compensation for investment banking services from (WMT), (KR)
Citigroup received compensation for products and services other than investment banking services from (COST), (M), (JCP), (KSS), (TGT), (WMT), (HD), (WAG), (KR), (SWY), (SVU) in the past 12 months.
Citigroup has, or had within the past 12 months, the following investment banking clients (TGT), (WMT), (SKS), (HD), (KR)
Citigroup has, or had within the past 12 months, the following non-investment-banking, securities-related clients: (COST), (M), (JCP), (KSS), (TGT), (WMT), (SKS), (HD), (CVS), (WAG), (KR), (SWY), (SVU)
Citigroup has, or had within the past 12 months, the following non-investment-banking, non-securities-related clients: (COST), (M), (JCP), (KSS), (TGT), (WMT), (HD), (WAG), (SWY), (SVU)
Citi makes a market in (COST), (M), (CVS)

ANTHONY SCARAMUCCI
Scaramucci and SkyBridge Capital owns (BP)
Scaramucci and SkyBridge Capital owns Gold

MIKE KHOUW
Cantor Fitzgerald makes a market in (OPEN)

CNBC.com with wires. Thompson Reuters contributed to most of this report.

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