Weaker Dollar Seen as Unlikely to Cure Joblessness

While G.M. has been gaining market share in China, “it has nothing to do with currencies,” said Ferdinand Dudenhöffer, director of the Center Automotive Research at the University of Duisburg-Essen in Duisburg, Germany. Rather, he attributes G.M.’s gains to cars like the Chevrolet Sail that have found favor with local consumers.

“The dollar is not a problem for VW or G.M.,” Mr. Dudenhöffer said.

Experience suggests that currency movements alone are unlikely to correct trade imbalances or lift exports. A decline in the value of the dollar against the yen did little to correct the United States trade deficit with Japan during the 1980s, according to a study released last week by HSBC.

Indeed, some American companies report that a weakening dollar does not enhance export volumes. Roger Sustar, president of Fredon Corporation, a Cleveland-based manufacturer of parts for the aerospace, defense, rail and medical industries, said that although the dollar had weakened against the British pound over the last two years, the company had not increased sales in Britain.

Rather, Mr. Sustar said, existing clients “haven’t been beating the bejeebers out of us to lower our prices.”

Some economists argue that if the dollar weakness lasts long enough it will have some effect on unemployment in the United States. A sustained increase in exports would create jobs throughout the economy as businesses that supported the companies selling abroad also started hiring. “There’s a multiplier effect,” said Steve Blitz, a senior economist for ITG Investment Research.

Mr. Blitz said that, in fact, the United States economy should rely more heavily on export businesses to create jobs, rather than predominantly depending on American consumers, who account for an estimated 60 percent of the country’s economic activity. “The model of the last 30 years can no longer continue,” Mr. Blitz said. “The job creation has to come from the export sector.”

Another potential for jobs will come from foreign companies who build operations in the United States, in part to avoid currency fluctuations going the other way. BMW, for example, broke ground on its first plant in South Carolina in 1992, and in September opened a second factory near Spartanburg, where it had already hired 1,000 workers, with plans to hire 600 more. “Currency hedging is definitely one piece” of the company’s rationale for building the plants in the United States, said Thomas Kowaleski, a spokesman for BMW North America.

Currency fluctuations are just one part of what makes an American good or service more attractive to foreign buyers. Typically, a weaker dollar has provided a lift to American hotels and tourism destinations, as travelers from Europe and Asia suddenly find their money goes further at Disneyland or Bloomingdale’s.

But these days, tourism officials say, travelers have so many locales around the world to choose from that currency moves don’t necessarily translate into travel booms.

“Nowadays in the travel world, it’s such a competitive market to try and get people to come to your destination,” said Carol Martinez, a spokeswoman for the Los Angeles Convention and Visitors Bureau. “The value is a factor but there are many other factors, too.”