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Profiting from the Reflation Trade

Wednesday, 17 Nov 2010 | 6:36 PM ET

After the Federal Reserve announced last week it would buy $600 billion in Treasury securities as a means of bolstering the US economy, stocks quickly rallied.

The markets, however, have since come off their highs and those critical of quantitative easing are raising doubts about whether it will work. Kanundrum Capital founder Brian Kelly thinks nothing has changed and is looking at the commodities because of inventories.

How to Profit from QE2?
A look at why Bernanke's QE2 has set up massive commodities demand and inflation.

Take corn and soybearns, for example. The industry metric is stock-to-use ratio — basically inventory levels. The 20-year average for corn is at 15 percent, while the stock-to-use ratio is at 6 percent. For soybeans, the 20-year average is at 15 percent with stock-to-use ratio at 6 percent.

"You're talking about a big inventory stocking cycle." Kelly said, so outside of buying exchange-traded funds, he would play this trend via shipping.

Both corn and soybeans grown in the US are being sent to Europe and China. For soybeans, overall exports are +43 percent year-to-date. Exports to China are +48 percent YTD, while exports to the European Union are +216 percent YTD.

Kelly recommends playing shipping through Diana Shipping or Balt Trading Limited .

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Trader disclosure: On November 17, 2010, the day this video was recorded, following stocks and commodities mentioned or intended to be mentioned on CNBC’s "Fast Money" were owned by the "Fast Money" traders; Finerman owns (AAPL); Finerman’s firm owns (GM); Finerman owns (DYN); Finerman's Firm Is Short (IWM); Finerman's Firm Is Short (SPY); Finerman's Firm Is Short (MDY); Finerman's Firm Is Short (IJR); Finerman's Firm Is Long Russell Puts; Finerman's Firm Is Long S&P Puts; Jon Najarian owns (DRYS); Jon Najarian owns (FSLR) put spread; Jon Najarian owns (LMD) calls; Jon Najarian owns (FIRE) calls; Grasso owns (ASTM), (BA), (BAC), (BWC), (C), (CSCO), (JPM), (LPX), (MOT), (MHY), (NDAQ), (PFE), (PRST); Terranova owns (UPL), (C), (PEP), (VRTS), (OXY), (GS), (POT), (AAPL), (ORCL), (MCD), (NKE)

For Steve Grasso:
Stuart Frankel & Co and it’s partners own (AAPL)
Stuart Frankel & Co and it’s partners own (CSCO)
Stuart Frankel & Co and it’s partners own (CUBA)
Stuart Frankel & Co and it’s partners own (GERN)
Stuart Frankel & Co and it’s partners own (HSPO)
Stuart Frankel & Co and it’s partners own (NWS.A)
Stuart Frankel & Co and it’s partners own (NYX)
Stuart Frankel & Co and it’s partners own (PDE)
Stuart Frankel & Co and it’s partners own (PFE)
Stuart Frankel & Co and it’s partners own (PRST)
Stuart Frankel & Co and it’s partners own (RDC)
Stuart Frankel & Co and it’s partners own (TLM)
Stuart Frankel & Co and it’s partners own (XRX)
Stuart Frankel & Co and it’s partners own (SDS)
Stuart Frankel & Co And Its Partners Own (UNM)
Stuart Frankel & Co and it’s partners are short (QQQQ)
Stuart Frankel & Co and it’s partners are short (MCD)
Stuart Frankel & Co and it’s partners are short (AAPL)

For Joe Terranova
Terranova is chief market strategist of Virtus Investment Partners, LTD.
Virtus Investment Partners own more than 1% of (ABAX)
Virtus Investment Partners own more than 1% of (ALK)
Virtus Investment Partners own more than 1% of (AMKR)
Virtus Investment Partners own more than 1% of (CASS)
Virtus Investment Partners own more than 1% of (CMS)
Virtus Investment Partners own more than 1% of (CSC)
Virtus Investment Partners own more than 1% of (CSVI)
Virtus Investment Partners own more than 1% of (FCFS)
Virtus Investment Partners own more than 1% of (IGE)
Virtus Investment Partners own more than 1% of (LDR)
Virtus Investment Partners own more than 1% of (LPHI)
Virtus Investment Partners own more than 1% of (MGRC)
Virtus Investment Partners own more than 1% of (NRCI)
Virtus Investment Partners own more than 1% of (DBV)
Virtus Investment Partners own more than 1% of (XLB)
Virtus Investment Partners own more than 1% of (XLP)
Virtus Investment Partners own more than 1% of (XLY)
Virtus Investment Partners own more than 1% of (XLF)
Virtus Investment Partners own more than 1% of (XLI)
Virtus Investment Partners own more than 1% of (XLU)
Virtus Investment Partners own more than 1% of (SOA)
Virtus Investment Partners own more than 1% of (SUBK)
Virtus Investment Partners own more than 1% of (WDFC)
Virtus Investment Partners own more than 1% of (WMB)
Virtus Investment Partners own more than 1% of (YDNT)
Virtus Investment Partners own more than 1% of (DRYS)

For Brian Kelly
Accounts Managed By Kanundrum Capital Own (C)
Accounts Managed By Kanundrum Capital Own (GLD)
Accounts Managed By Kanundrum Capital Own (SLV)
Accounts Managed By Kanundrum Capital Own (IEF)
Accounts Managed By Kanundrum Capital Own (TIP)
Accounts Managed By Kanundrum Capital Own (REE)
Accounts Managed By Kanundrum Capital Own (GDXJ)
Accounts Managed By Kanundrum Capital Own (HD)
Accounts Managed By Kanundrum Capital Are Long Euro
Accounts Managed By Kanundrum Capital Are Short (YEN)

For Mike Khouw
***No Disclosures***

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