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Update: Who Will Be Black Friday Winners?

Wednesday, 24 Nov 2010 | 5:35 PM ET

Look over a trader’s shoulder on Wednesday and you're apt to see a split computer screen – one side for the markets and the other for Black Friday sales.

From Walmart to Nordstrom retailers are getting ready for as many as 138 million shoppers expected to deluge stores between now and Sunday, according to the National Retail Federation.

Investors are already placing their bets with at least 4 big names trading at or near all time highs. They follow:

Retail Stocks at All-Time Highs
Tiffany
Amazon
Coach
Nike

It’s widely believed that shoppers will be more willing to open their wallets this holiday season than in year’s past. Adding to the tailwinds, the recent downturn forced retailers to reduce excess inventories and operate more profitably.

Who will be the big winners? How should you play it?

Word on the Street
The Fast Money traders take a look at today's top business stories.

Instant Insights with the Fast Money Traders

I’m looking for Amazon to be the big winner this holiday as well as Apple, says Joe Terranova. I truly believe Apple gadgets will be the must-give gifts this holiday season.

And I’m also bullish Nike and Foot Locker. The athletic apparel space has been performing well; also Americans like to workout and the affluent consumer drives this space.

I’d play it longNordstrom , adds Stephen Weiss author of The Billion Dollar Mistake. I agree -- companies that cater to the high-end customer willl likely do better.

I like Macy’s , says Karen Finerman. At 12 times earnings it’s not expensive and I expect to see positive momentum. Also I believe they’re doing better managing inventories.

(Macy's was also the Hedge Fund Trade of the Week. Click here to find out why Anthony Scaramucci is bullish.)

Macy’s and Target are my top two picks says Citi analyst Deborah Weinswig. Both stores are practicing something I call localization – that is putting the ‘right’ item in the ‘right stores.

I also like FedEx, adds Weiss. FedEx had a great quarter and typically it’s correlated to Amazon. FedEx economists are looking for a 3% increase in retail sales but I'm looking for a 5% increase; I think that surprises everybody.

I’m long the RTH , says Brian Kelly. I’m trying to take advantage of what looks like a better environment for retail. But it’s a trade. I plan to take off the position on either Friday or Monday.

I’m long Tiffany , Amazon and Guess , reveals Jon Najarian. I suspect people have a little more money and think they will spend some of it on holiday shopping.

I’m looking at Tiffany at 21 forward earnings, says Guy Adami. I think valuations may be stretched now. If you’re long I’d consider taking profits.

Hear more from Citi analyst Deborah Weinswig. Watch the video now!


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