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If Yields Hit this Level, Watch Out for Inflation: Charts

CNBC.com
Monday, 13 Dec 2010 | 7:56 AM ET

The price of gold and Western stock markets are likely to see strong gains in the new year, but the recent selloff in long-dated government bonds could be stalled by the Federal Reserve, Robin Griffiths, technical strategist at Cazenove Capital, told CNBC Monday.

Stocks, Gold Headed Higher: Charts
The price of gold and Western stock markets are likely to see strong gains in the new year, but the recent selloff in long-dated government bonds could be stalled by the Federal Reserve, Robin Griffiths, technical strategist at Cazenove Capital, told CNBC Monday.

Gold is in a "linear uptrend and such linear uptrends end by going exponential, it hasn't even started to do that yet … By the time it's finished going exponential it will be a long way higher than this," Griffiths said.

Griffiths said that investors should keep at least a small percentage of their portfolio in gold to act as a form of insurance.

Meanwhile, Western stock markets are likely to continue seeing strength until at least March, but probably until May, according to Griffiths.

The recent selloff in long-dated government bonds has push Treasury yields sharply higher as many long-term investors are becoming concerned about inflation, Griffiths pointed out.

If the yield on 30-year U.S. government bonds pushed above 4.7 percent it would "signal the end of the bond bull market and an era of inflation," he said.

"If the Fed is really determined to send the signal: 'I will keep interest rates low for a very long time' … it almost certainly won't let this yield go through 4.7. So somewhere between 4.47 and 4.7, it's going to turn around and come back down," he said.

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