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Stocks Up Modestly, but End Shy of Benchmarks

Stocks ended up slightly as the major indices failed to close above significant benchmarks soon after Microsoft, in a surprise move, released earnings before the bell.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 4.39 points or 0.04 percent, to close at 11,989.83, its highest close since June 19, 2008. On that date the Dow closed above 12,000,but the blue-chip index has to end above that psychologically important benchmark the last two sessions despite surpassing it in intraday trading.

General Electric and Home Depot led blue-chips higher, while Procter & Gamble and AT&T fell.

The S&P 500 rose 2.91 points, or 0.2 percent, to close at 1,299.54, its highest close since Aug. 28, 2008, which was also the last time the broad market index closed above 1,300.

The Nasdaq gained the most in percentage terms, rising 15.78 points, or 0.6 percent, to close at 2,755.28. The CBOE Volatility Index, widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, fell below 17.

Among key S&P 500 sectors, financials, consumer discretionary, and industrials gained, while telecom and consumerstaples fell.

The market seemed to stall as it hit the major thresholds, but a sell-off doesn't appear to be in the offing, at least yet.

According to Yu-Dee Chang, chief principal at ACE Investment Strategists, over the past 90 years, the market in any given year has ended below the closing level of the year before at some point. In other words: "There's an 89% chance that we will give up what we gained this year," Chang says.

On average, the correction, when it happens is about 9 percent. Chang thinks it will be more in the neighborhood of 6 to 8 percent this time. By year end, however, Chang expects the market will deliver returns in the upper-single-digits to double-digits.

As a result, he said he is "very cautiously long" the market with the caveat he is "getting ready to take a lot off the table." And when the market does correct, he said he'll be ready to step back in.

Certain indicators confirm the notion that the market is due for a sell-off, such as record numbers of stocks hitting 52-week highs, said Michael Sheldon, chief market strategist at RDM Financial Group. Another indicator: smaller capitalization stocks have tended not to outperform large caps in recent weeks, Sheldon said.

But he adds, "generally speaking, the environment remains positive. Any pullback that we see will mostly be short term in nature."

Microsoft's earnings came out just before the market closed as the tech giant reported sales and profits that beat expectations. Microsoft's fiscal second-quarter profit was $6.63 billion, or 77 cents per share, on sales of $19.95 billion. That compares with profits of $6.66 billion, or 74 cents per share, on sales of $19.02 billion a year ago. Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters expected Microsoft to report profits of 68 cents a share on sales of $19.1 billion.

The dollar traded flat against a basket of currencies, while gold prices slumped 2 percent to close below $1,319 an ounce.

Materials stocks fell as well, led by Newmont Mining , Freeport-McMoran Copper & Gold , and Cliffs Natural Resources .

Earnings news continued to largely surprise to the upside, although there were some weak reports on Thursday.

AT&T and Procter & Gamble weighed the Dow down after AT&T reported profits that narrowly beat estimates and P&G reported earnings that beat expectations, but were hurt by rising commodity costs.

Modest gains by Caterpillar were not enough to offset losses by the other Dow components. Caterpillar, which serves as both an economic bellwether and a major weight on the Dow in terms of market capitalization, initially had stronger gains, but lost momentum during the session.

In other earnings news, Colgate-Palmolive sank after reporting earnings that fell short of expectations, due to higher promotion costs and lower sales.

But Stanley Black & Decker soared past its 52-week high after beating analyst expectations for its 2011 outlook, as the company showed evident strength after the merger of Stanley Works and Black & Decker last March.

And Potash gained after profits more than doubled on strong sales. The fertilizer company also announced it would double its quarterly cash dividend and declare a stock dividend. S&P Equity Research raised Potash's price target to $175 a share from $150.

Several tech companies released earnings after the market closed Wednesday, including Netflix , which surprised with a surge in quarterly profits and an upbeat outlook for the current quarter. Shares of the entertainment distribution company soared. At least half a dozen brokerages raised their price targets for Netflix, with Cannacord Genuity striking the highest target of $250 a share. Another four brokerages raised their ratings for the stock.

And QualComm's shares spiked higher after the chipmaker raised its outlook for the year on rising sales of the chips it makes for mobile phones. The company raised its revenue forecast for fiscal 2011 by $1.2 billion. At least four brokerages raised their price targets for QualComm.

Motorola Mobility Holdings fell, however, after warning it would revert to a loss in the current quarter after posting a profit in the fourth quarter because of competition from Apple's iPhone. This was the wireless company's first earnings release as a separate company.

Starbucks also reported results after the market closed Wednesday, and was slightly lower Thursday.

The world's largest coffee chain said it expects rising coffee prices to hit profits more than it previously thought. The news sent shares lower even though earnings came in above analyst forecasts.

Amazon.com was scheduled for release after the closing bell.

Oil prices slid nearly 2 percent Thursday to close below $86 a barrel. Murphy Oil led the energy sector lower after reporting a 45 percent drop in fourth-quarter earnings. Shares of the oil producer sank as volume in the company rose to more than 420 percent of the stock's 10-day average.

In U.S. economic news, pending home sales rose 2 percent in December, which was more than expected, the National Association of Realtors reported Thursday. The trade group's pending home sales index rose to 93.7 from a downwardly revised 91.9 in November.

Jobless claims soared 51,000 to 454,000, as snowfall in several states slowed down claims processing, according to the Labor Department. That's far more than the slight rise to 405,000 expected by economists surveyed by Reuters.The less volatile four-week moving average of initial claims rose 15,750 to 428,750 last week.

Meanwhile, durable goods fell 2.5 percent, the Commerce Department reported. That was far worse than the 1.5 percent rise expected by economists surveyed by Reuters.

Investors also began the session concerned about Standard & Poor's decision to cut Japan's credit rating, as it points to potential weakness in the finances of developed economies.

On Thursday, the U.S. Treasury auctioned $29 billion in seven-year notes at a high yield of 2.744, and a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.85.

Monetary policy was in focus as U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner traveled to the World Economic Forum’s annual gathering in Davos where he was due to meet European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet.

Geithner told the Wall Street Journal that he will reassure the global movers and shakers there that the U.S. has the political will and capacity to address its fiscal deficit and deliver on the program President Barack Obama outlined in his State of the Union address Wednesday.

Davos 2011 - See Complete Coverage
Davos 2011 - See Complete Coverage

Trichet told CNBC in Davoslate on Wednesday that solving the euro zone crisis was “a work in progress” and repeated his call for the euro zone's rescue fund to be extended and made more flexible.

On the Calendar This Week:

THURSDAY: After-the-bell earnings from Microsoft.
FRIDAY: GDP (first reading), consumer sentiment; NBCU/Comcast deal closes; before-the-bell earnings from Chevron and Honeywell.

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