Mardi Gras - Another Fat Tuesday?

Mardi Gras
AP
Mardi Gras

As of today's morning levels, the Dow is up over 0.6% but still down nearly 1.8% from its highest close of the year (a 2-1/2 year high) reached on February 18. So will Mardi Gras help the U.S. Indexes rebound to new monthly highs? Unfortunately in this this case, it's only wishful thinking as stocks historically tend to downtrend on Mardi Gras. Nevertheless, looking forward the markets will have something to cheer about as the major indexes have averaged descent gains following the 40 day lent period leading up to Easter. Here are the historical averages for the major indices.

Here are the historical averages for the major indices.

Dow since 1900:

Mardi Gras:

  • On average the Dow has lost -0.08% on Mardi Gras
    • Up 49% of the time, avg gains of 0.74% when up during Mardi Gras
    • Down 51% of the time, avg loss of -0.88% when down during Mardi Gras
  • The biggest gain on Mardi Gras was on 2/24/2009, when the Dow finished up 3.32%
  • The biggest loss on Mardi Gras was on 2/23/1909, when the Dow finished down -5.24%
  • On average the Dow has gained 1.93% from Mardi Gras to Good Friday

S&P since 1928:

  • On average the S&P has lost -0.1% on Mardi Gras
    • Up 51% of the time, avg gains of 0.74% when up during Mardi Gras
    • Down 48% of the time, avg loss of -0.99% when down during Mardi Gras
    • Flat 1% of the time, on 2/22/1977
  • The biggest gain on Mardi Grass was on 2/23/2009, when the S&P finished up 4.01%
  • The biggest loss on Mardi Grass was on 3/5/1935, when the S&P finished down -3.31%
  • On average the S&P has gained 1.97% from Mardi Gras to Good Friday

Nasdaq Composite since 1971:

  • On average the Nasdaq has lost -0.17% on Mardi Gras
    • Up 43% of the time, avg gains of 0.72% when up during Mardi Gras
    • Down 55% of the time, avg loss of -0.87% when down during Mardi Gras
    • Flat 2% of the time, on 2/7/1978
  • The biggest gain on Mardi Grass was on 2/24/2009, when the Nasdaq finished up 3.9%
  • The biggest loss on Mardi Grass was on 2/27/2001, when the Nasdaq finished down -4.36%
  • On average the Nasdaq has gained 0.82% from Mardi Gras to Good Friday

Leading the Dow in today's morning session are Bank of America , American Express , JPMorgan Chase , Boeing, and AT&T .

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