CNBC's Market Movers For 2011: Michael Yoshikami On The US Economy, Emerging Markets And Commodities
1. Emerging markets will shrug off pessimists' doubts and deliver strong performance in 2011
Much has been written about attempts by China to slow down growth and the resulting impact on surrounding economies. While growth will certainly slow, expansion rates will still hugely exceed developed markets growth trends. Investors need to be in these markets despite the fluctuations and uncertainties as global wealth redistribution continues.
2. Commodities will continue their strong run as inflation picks up late in the year
Gold, food products, industrial metals, and other commodity products will continue their strong performance as economies recover around the world. The recent disaster in Japan will add to the increasing appetite for commodity assets as rebuilding occurs. Inflation fears will further solidify this asset class as an important addition to investment portfolios as a means to cope with rising prices.
3.United States real growth will lag optimistic assumptions
Real GDP growth for the United States, when stripping out artificial measures, will still barely reach 2 percent. Quantitative easing and deficit tax reductions will make it appear as if GDP is better than it really is. The reality is that the leveraging process is still less than halfway over, and headwinds remain for the American economy. US equities focus on cash flow and dividends will thrive in an environment where slower long-term growth is a reality.