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Kiwis Are Just About Ready to Fall, Strategist Says

Monday, 11 Apr 2011 | 9:12 AM ET
New Zealand
Stockbyte | Getty Images
New Zealand

The kiwi has risen sharply against the U.S. dollar in the last two weeks. But that won't last, this strategist says.

Between the earthquake and its economic impact, and interest rates that were lowered in early March, the fundamentals in New Zealand aren't looking so great, according to Andrew Busch, global currency and public policy strategist for BMO Capital. Add to that the recent strength in the kiwi, and you have a selling opportunity, he told CNBC's Melissa Lee.

The New Zealand dollar is like "the last kid to get picked in a dodgeball game," Busch said. If and when the U.S. dollar rallies - say, if stock markets get wobbly and investors lose their appetite for risk - he expects it to come back fastest against the kiwi.

Money In Motion, April 8, 2011
A weekly look at currency trading and how to profit from it, with CNBC's Melissa Lee and the Money In Motion traders.

Busch recommends selling the kiwi at current levels, around .7810, with a stop loss at .7905, and taking profits at .7630.

Rebecca Patterson, global head of currencies and commodities for J.P. Morgan's private bank, took a similarly dim view of the New Zealand dollar, with another graphic metaphor - about the kiwi being "the first bird to fall out of the sky."

You can watch the whole discussion in the clip.

Tune In: CNBC's "Money in Motion Currency Trading" airs on Fridays at 5:30pm.

"Money in Motion Currency Trading" repeats on Saturdays at 7pm.

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