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Pros: Negative Outlook Didn’t Push Down Stocks, This Did

Monday, 18 Apr 2011 | 6:17 PM ET

Wall Street fell more than 1 percent on Monday after the S&P downgraded the outlook for the United States to negative.

But according to trader Tim Seymour that wasn't the only catalyst behind the sell-off.

In fact, Seymour thinks the whoosh lower was more likely due to the following:

- OPEC said that oil is over supplied and oil prices are $15-$20 too high.

- Europe’s financial woes resurfaced with financial markets increasingly convinced Greece will have to renegotiate the terms of its debt, because its economy cannot grow fast enough to service it.

- China central bank Governor Zhou Xiao-chuan said his nation would continue tightening monetary policy for “some time.”

Word on the Street
The Fast Money traders take a look at today's top business stories.

And on the back of all these developments Seymour is astounded by how much complacency remains in the market. Although the Vix spiked on Monday it pulled back from its highs.

With so many negative catalysts looming over the market, what should you make of Monday's action? According to trader Guy Adami it may not be as bad as it appears.

In the near-term, Adami skews optimistic. He points to the fact that 1300 held on the S&P. “Price is truth,” he says. He also cites some upside reversals as another bullish sign.

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OIL TAKES A SLIDE

Oil closed lower Monday after OPEC said that oil was over supplied and prices are currently $15-$20 too high.

What’s the trade?

Brian Kelly suggests keeping an eye on the geo-political developments. “If you think unrest will get worse, I’d be a buyer of oil around $102,” he says


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EARNINGS SEASON: CITI

Again bank earnings landed in the spotlight with Citi beating analysts estimates although profit fell 32 percent as bond trading revenue plunged and operating expenses jumped.

What’s the trade?

Stephen Weiss thinks the Street views Citi's results "as a big sigh of relief." Although he's not in the name he thinks the reverse split and the potential of a reinstated dividend could generate buying among big institutional investors, where Citi stock is currently under-owned.





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Trader disclosure: On April 18, 2011, the following stocks and commodities mentioned or intended to be mentioned on CNBC’s "Fast Money" were owned by the "Fast Money" traders; Seymour owns (AA); Seymour owns (BX); Seymour owns (F); Seymour owns (POT); Finerman and Finerman's firm own (AAPL); Finerman and Finerman's firm own (BP); Finerman and Finerman's firm own (CVS); Finerman owns (C); Finerman's firm is long (IBM); Finerman's firm owns (JPM), is long (JPM) leaps; Finerman owns (JPM); FInerman and Finerman's firm own (MSFT); Finerman's firm is long (TGT); Finerman owns (UNG); Finerman owns (USO); Finerman's firm is long (WMT); Finerman's firm is short (IWM); FInerman's firm is short (MDY); Finerman's firm is short (SPY); Finerman's firm is short (IJR); Finermna's firm is long S&P 500 puts; Finerman's firm is long Russell 2000 puts; Adami owns (AGU); Adami owns (C); Adami owns (GS); Adami owns (INTC); Adami owns (MSFT); Adami owns (NUE); Adami owns (NG); Adami owns (BTU); Jon Najarian owns (MA) is short (MA) calls; Jon Najarian owns (AXP) is short (AXP) calls; Jon Najarian owns (CBOE) is short (CBOE) calls; Jon Najarian owns (CME) is short (CME) calls; Jon Najarian owns (NYX) is short (NYX) calls; Jon Najarian owns (TYC) is short (TYC) calls; Jon Najarian owns (SLV) is short (SLV) calls; Jon Najarian owns (SLW) is short (SLW) calls

For Brian Kelly
Accounts Managed By Brian Kelly Capital are long (EBAY)
Accounts Managed By Brian Kelly Capital are long (GLD)
Accounts Managed By Brian Kelly Capital are long (MCP) calls
Accounts Managed By Brian Kelly Capital are long (SLV)
Accounts Managed By Brian Kelly Capital are long (SPY) puts
Accounts Managed By Brian Kelly Capital are short (XLF)
Accounts Managed By Brian Kelly Capital are long VIX calls
Accounts Managed By Brian Kelly Capital are long (FXY) puts
Accounts Managed By Brian Kelly Capital are long gold futures
Accounts Managed By Brian Kelly Capital are long silver futures
Accounts Managed By Brian Kelly Capital are long natural gas futures

For Dennis Gartman
Funds Managed by dennis Gartman are short 10 yr U.S. Treasuries
Funds managed by Dennis Gartman are short euros
Funds managed by Dennis Gartman are long gold
Funds managed by Dennis Gartman are long July Silver futures contracts
Funds managed by Dennis Gartman are short WTI crude
Funds Managed by Dennis Gartman are long Brent Crude
Funds Managed by Dennis Gartman are long soybeans
Funds managed by Dennis Gartman are long corn
Funds managed by Dennis Gartman are long Canadian Dollars, Australian Dollars, Swiss Francs
Funds Managed by Dennis Gartman are long sugar
Funds managed by Dennis Gartman are long nat gas
Funds Managed by Dennis Gartman are short pounds
Funds Managed by dennis Gartman are short 10 yr Canadian bonds

For Tim Seymour
Seygem Asset Management owns (MTL)

For Brian Stutland
Stutland Owns (INTC), Is Short (INTC) Calls

For Mike Khouw
Cantor Fitzgerald is a market maker in (AAPL)
Cantor Fitzgerald is a market maker in (IWM)

For Craig Berger
FBR Capital Markets Is A Market Maker Or Liquidity Provider For (INTC)

For Anthony Scaramucci
SkyBridge Is A Fund Of Funds Manager
Funds Held May Or May Not Own The Recommended Securities

For Tavis McCourt
Morgan Keegan & Co., Inc. expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services from (GLUU), (KNOL), and (PGI) in the next 3 months
Morgan Keegan & Co., Inc. has received compensation for investment banking services from (PGI) in the past 12 months
An affiliate of Morgan Keegan & Company, Inc. received compensation for products or services other than investment banking from (KNOL) in the past 12 months
Morgan Keegan does not allow its analysts or their immediate family members to hold a position of any kind in the securities of the companies they follow

For Carter Worth
***No Disclosures

Sean Egan
**No Disclosures




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