This morning at the SALT conference here in Las Vegas I ran into one of my favorite contrarians, Matt Gohd of Revere Securities.
Most people at the conference seem pretty bullish, especially the big names speaking from the podium. But Gohd strikes a different note.
"We're going down from here, maybe 10 percent," Gohd says. "We could be looking at a major market crack."
As signs that the market is headed for trouble, Gohd points out that there's little short interest, a lot of buying on margin, and a lot of speculation across asset classes.
"In 2008, it was speculation in commodities, especially oil. Now it's silver, Chinese internet stocks, and long term Treasurys," he says.
The market, he says, is neither a bull nor a bear market right now.
"We've got an Alfred E. Neuman market: 'What me, worry?'" he said.
Gohd's had a good track record lately. He went short silver last week, before the tulmult started.
He thinks silver could be going down from here, perhaps as low as $30.
But he's taking precautions, selling out of the money puts to "get some cash in."
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