On last Friday's Money In Motion, I recommended a trade on the euro. Here's an update.
On last Friday's MIM, I reviewed how scandals impact currencies, from the Canadian Gomery Commission to the Clinton/Lewinski mess to DSK.
Sell Euro/Buy USd
Entry 1.4230 (current spot)
3:1 about payout.
There's another scandal brewing and this time it's in Spain. State elections this weekend should mean ruling party out and new guys in.
This means the new guys actually tell you what the old guys spent money on and how bad a job they did. This is just like what happened in Greece in 2009.
Rumors are of another E25-40 billion of debt sitting hidden and will increase the debt burden of the country.
Spain is the big, bad country that will implode the European debt situation if they need a bailout.
This played out almost exactly as planned with the kicker of S&P downgrading Italy's credit rating to negative from stable. Sadly, I'm sure you'll note that you couldn't get into this trade at 1.4230 by the time you could trade on Sunday. The level I had was to sell it where it was on Friday at noon. For all these trades, you have to adjust on the fly as events change and be flexible.
Bottom line: the call was right, but markets don't wait sometimes for Sunday for you to get in at optimal levels.
Andrew B. BuschDirector, Global Currency and Public Policy Strategist at BMO Capital Markets, a recognized expert on the world financial markets and how these markets are impacted by political events, and a contributor to CNBC's Money in Motion Currency Trading.You can comment on his piece and reach him hereand you can follow him on Twitter at http://twitter.com/abusch .
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